What gives?
Seven (7) outfielders were named to the American League squad for the 2025 Major League Baseball All-Star Game. Those seven outfielders were Aaron Judge, Javier Baez, Riley Greene, Byron Buxton, Steven Kwan, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena (who was named to the game as a replacement after Rodriguez opted out).
Now, what do five of these seven men have in common? I’ll tell you! They’re having a worse season than Boston Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela! As we sit here at the All-Star break, Ceddanne is batting .271 with a .314 on-base percentage (walking still isn’t really his thing, don’t worry about it). He has 14 home runs, 21 doubles, and 48 RBIs. He has 13 stolen bases and a .796 .OPS. Oh, and he is second in all of baseball (first among outfielders) with 15 defensive runs saved and fourth in all of baseball (second among outfielders, behind only the golden god PCA) with 15 outs above average. If he isn’t the best defender in the entire sport, he is damn near close.
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Of the seven men previously listed, only Aaron Judge (obviously) and Byron Buxton (but it’s pretty close!) are having 2025 seasons that one could describe as “clearly” better than Rafaela’s. I’ve got zero qualms with those two being in over our Ceddy. Buxton not starting the game is completely baffling, but that’s what fan voting gets you, I suppose.
Then there’s Detroit Tiger Riley Greene. He is mashing with 24 home runs and 78 RBIs to go with an .879 .OPS on the year, but Rafaela’s defensive prowess, even with a fairly worse bat, still gives him a .4 edge in fWAR. In a similar vein is replacement and Seattle Mariner Randy Arozarena. Randy’s bat is nothing to scoff at. He’s slashing .251/.357/.463. But Rafaela’s shining defense once again gives him the edge in fWAR, this time by .6. Should Ceddanne be in the game over Greene and Arozarena? Probably, but neither selection is some gross injustice.
So let’s get to the two gross injustices! First is Mariner Julio Rodriguez. Julio, like Ceddanne, is an absolute wizard in the outfield. Nobody is saying otherwise! He’s worse than Ceddanne, but still quite good. Julio’s placement here comes entirely from the tremendous step back he took with his bat this year. Rodriguez trails Rafaela in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. In nearly 100 more at-bats, Rodriguez has just 2 more RBIs and 13 more hits, and is tied with Rafaela with 14 long balls. Rafaela, once again, leads in fWAR by .6.
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Cleveland Guardian Steven Kwan is our second injustice. Kwan is a slap hitter who somehow only has a batting average 14 points higher than Rafaela’s. Kwan is a tremendous defender (not as good as Ceddanne, but still), but his bat leaves ton to be desired this season, Rafaela outpaces him by nearly 100 points in slugging percentage and more than 50 points in .OPS. Gross injustice!
Right alongside Rodriguez and Kwan in the gross injustice category is Motor City Kitty Javier Baez. MLB decided, for some reason, to list Baez as an outfielder on this year’s fan voting site. If one heads over to Baseball Reference, they’ll see that only 259.2 of Baez’s nearly 650 defensive innings this year came in the outfield. Furthermore, Rafaela leads Baez in nearly every offensive statistic except batting average, where Baez maintains an evidently very important .04 lead. And for good measure, Ceddanne maintains a 1.8 fWAR lead on Javier (sheesh).
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At the end of the day, the All-Star Game doesn’t really mean anything. It’s entirely ceremonial now (thank god), and there are snubs and strange picks every single season. That being said, it would have been so special to see Ceddanne get rewarded with an appearance. Over the last year, he has completely reinvented himself and is turning into a legitimate MVP candidate (no, really) before our very eyes. Ceddy, you’re an All-Star to me.
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