We are watching a superbly talented young player figure it out before our eyes—enjoy it.
Rookie years are hard. There are many reasons for this, maybe chief among them is that baseball is inherently a game of failure. A good hitter fails to get on base 65% of the time. A bad hitter can suffer a far worse fate. Right now Ceddanne Rafaela is in the midst of an extremely difficult rookie season where he is failing to get on base 79% of the time.
While it’s impossible to argue that Rafaela isn’t struggling (he has a 35 wRC+ and a slash line of .171/.213/.293) I’m excited and encouraged by what I’ve seen. Before I disclose why I’m so optimistic, let’s look at what the numbers say. Almost all numbers have been unkind to Rafaela so far. Many prospect wonks expected him to struggle at the plate, but almost no one expected him to grade out poorly in defensive metrics.
According to Baseball Savant, his fielding run metrics grade out far below average at 30th percentile. He’s been good for 0 Outs Above Average in center field and -2 at shortstop. Moreover, looking at traditional defensive stats he has already made four errors, three in center and one at shortstop.
Anyone who has watched the Red Sox play this year knows that Rafaela is not a defensive liability. In fact there were several games that the Red Sox would not have won without his elite ability to track down balls in center field. Dating back to the season-ending injury to Trevor Story, the Red Sox had been trotting out David Hamilton, Pablo Reyes, and Romy Gonzalez. For various reasons, none of these options has worked. The first three games that Rafaela has played exclusively at shortstop have resulted in the team earning three wins.
This isn’t to say that those three wins were caused by Rafaela playing shortstop, but he does provide a stabilizing presence at the game’s busiest infield position. With Hamilton fielding the position, routine plays could not be taken for granted. This ineptitude has caused the whole infield to suffer resulting in an epidemic of unearned runs. The Red Sox lead baseball with a whopping 26 unearned runs. Now the Red Sox staff can rest easy with Rafaela making all the plays he needs to.
The step down in center field from Rafaela to Duran is relatively small in comparison with the step up he provides over Hamilton at shortstop. I was initially resistant to the idea of moving him, but the team is better with him taking over shortstop full time. When the team is fully healthy, he can go back to playing a fantastic center field, but for now the team needs competence at shortstop.
As baffling as the defensive metrics are, his speed and arm strength are both quantifiable and well above average. His sprint speed is 93rd percentile and his arm strength is 85th. I have no doubt that Rafaela’s many physical gifts would manifest in overwhelmingly positive defensive metrics over the course of a full year. The errors that he makes seem to be a case of losing focus or simply getting bored with the routine plays, it is not a lack of ability or being overmatched. Getting rid of these types of errors should happen with time as he continues to mature.
At the plate the path forward is more difficult to map out. While he dominated Triple-A last year, slashing .312/.370/.618, he continued to show off the holes in his game. Namely, Rafaela’s uncanny ability to make contact leads to him to chase pitches that he shouldn’t because he can occasionally have success doing this. As his slash line showed, he could get away with this behavior at Triple-A, as this season’s numbers have proven, he can no longer get by with this approach in the big leagues.
Right now Rafaela has a 44.1% rate of swinging at pitches outside of the zone, which is the eighth highest in baseball. Moreover, his swinging strike rate is 15.9%, the 14th highest mark in baseball among qualified hitters. Both of these are not great for being productive at the plate. Fortunately and unfortunately, Rafaela is preternaturally gifted at making contact with pitches he has no business swinging at and occasionally he can get hits on these pitches (this was true much more in the minors). Old habits die hard and Rafaela continues to try and swing at pitches he should lay off of.
The majority of Rafaela’s damage has been done on pitches up and in. He’s struggling mightily against offerings up and away and offerings down and away. Rafaela has also managed to hit four singles off pitches down and away. The reason why it is so hard for Rafaela to consistently lay off these offerings is that his athleticism allows him to do things that other hitters can’t.
In summation, my optimism stems from the fact that, in Rafaela, I still see a player who has all of the tools that he needs to succeed. His athleticism is second to none, despite the fact that he is physically unimposing at 5’8 and maybe 150 lbs. Anyone who watches him in the field knows that he will be a plus plus defender for years to come. His reads are brilliant and his baseball instincts are outstanding.
His quick twitch bat speed allows him to impact the baseball in a way that is reminiscent of other smaller sluggers like Dustin Pedroia and Mookie Betts. He is elevating the ball, as his ground ball rate is only 32.2%. This tells me that if he can simply swing at better pitches he can start impacting the baseball for extra base hits. Moreover, his BABAIP is comically low at .220 and any positive regression here will result in gains.
We are in the rare position to see a player blossom into a future impact regular and we get to see him play every day without the fear of being sent down. This team is so depleted that they simply can’t afford to do anything except let Rafaela figure it out on the fly. This is ultimately a good thing. Due to the injury to Triston Casas, Alex Cora was forced to bat Rafaela at the leadoff spot where he immediately delivered one of his best at-bats.
Over the next few months I’m confident that Rafaela will adapt to become a more patient hitter who punishes mistakes and uses his power/speed combo to punish opposing pitchers. He will continue to make plays that the majority of major league defenders aren’t capable of making. All of this will ultimately prove that he is well worth the $50 million dollar commitment made to him. The adjustments are happening before our eyes, enjoy the process.