Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas had a shortened 2024 season due to injury, appearing in only 63 games. But he showcased an intriguing power and patience skill set in 2023 slashing .263/.367/.490 (130 wRC+) across 502 plate appearances. The 24-year-old lefty has a polished approach and is in line to accumulate plenty of RBI in the heart of the Boston lineup. With a strong bounceback in 2025 (likely with the Red Sox despite recent trade rumors), Triston Casas could provide major help to fantasy owners. Let’s take a further dive into his offensive profile.
Breslow on Triston Casas:
“I’m not totally sure where it comes from. We’re not shopping Triston… I’ve seen speculation about what what deals may/may not have existed or what may/may not have been proposed. There was nothing that was remotely close.”https://t.co/yEhMQudAmJ
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) December 30, 2024
Triston Casas Could Help Fantasy Owners with Bounceback Season
Batted Ball Profile
Casas’ contact quality metrics look very strong during his time in the majors. Across more than 700 plate appearances from 2023 to 2024, he has a 13% Barrel Rate along with a 45% Hard Hit Rate. Further, his career 14.2% walk rate ranks sixth best among all hitters since being in the big leagues in 2022 (minimum 800 plate appearances). Here are some numbers to put his 2023 rookie campaign into perspective (minimum 450 plate appearances):
- > 13% Walk Rate
- > 13% Barrel Rate
- > 45% Hard Hit Rate
The only other hitters to post those numbers include Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, and Max Muncy. Needless to say, Casas found himself in well-respected company with some of the best hitters in baseball. Further, he only struck out at a 25% clip, which is more than acceptable with the other skills he brings. However, it is worth noting that in 2023 he was largely protected against left-handed pitching (only 97 of his 502 PAs). But he is far from inept versus the same-handed pitcher. For his career, he has a 114 wRC+ against lefties compared to 129 wRC+ against righties. However, he does have an elevated strikeout rate against lefty pitchers at 32.2%.
Patience Versus Left-Handed Pitching
Despite the elevated swing and miss against lefties, Casas displays an even more patient approach. For his career, he has a 15.8% walk rate versus them. Since his debut in 2022, that would be the second-highest mark among left-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers. The only hitter with a higher walk rate? That would of course be Juan Soto. While the sample is still small, it is noteworthy that we can observe a difference in approach against same-handed pitching and he has found success.
The expectation for Casas in 2025 is to play every day. Given his excellent results, there is no question that the 24-year-old deserves to get a full run. That will allow him to continue to evolve against left-handers. Given his below-average hit tool and the nature of seeing same-handed pitching, his strikeout rate will likely stay above 30% against them. Moreover, his longer swing (7.7 feet) leads to more swing and miss.
Bounce Back Case
The argument for Casas to rebound in a major way in 2025 is a relatively easy one to make. He has already shown a high ceiling with the stick, along with room to grow. Unfortunately, he was just injured in his sophomore season. While he has great power (see his 70-grade raw power), his home run output may not reach elite heights at least in the short term. He’s shown the ability to hit the ball in all directions and spray doubles in the gaps. Being at home in Fenway, this ability to hit the ball with authority to the opposite field could prove valuable.
This 435ft MOONSHOT by Triston Casas is the furthest hit oppo home run hit by a lefty at Oracle Park in the Statcast Era!
If that sounds crazy, it’s because it is
https://t.co/uUnJCI917T pic.twitter.com/2PmhRA1m6b
— Nyanasaur (@Nyanasaur) November 11, 2023
Furthermore, Fenway has been a below-average ballpark for left-handed home run production. However, Casas should hit around 30 home runs along with strong counting stats in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. That number could rise more with consistent everyday playing time and continued development. His average will probably max out around the .263 mark he showed in 2023. The expectation should be much lower with more time against left-handed pitching on the horizon. Overall, Triston Casas is a very talented and ascending young hitter who should be a prime target in fantasy baseball in 2025.
Photo Credit: © Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
The post Triston Casas is a Strong Bounce Back Candidate Next Season appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.