Let’s make a deal!
With dramatic music playing, a man in a suit walks down a long hallway with fish tanks lining the hallway and several spotlights pointed at the floor. He enters a large room and says something super corny to the ultra-rich investors he’s trying to impress. None of what ensues is at all staged for entertainment purposes.
Welcome to Starting Pitcher Shark Tank. The only fake television show that’s actually a blog post that talks about starting pitching trade targets. We’ll take a look at a few of the names that could be on the move, and their pitch to join the Boston Red Sox rotation.
Sandy Alcantara – Miami Marlins
Sharks, my name is Sandy Alcantara. I’m a former Cy Young Award winner seeking my next opportunity.
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
At his best, Sandy Alcantara was one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He incessantly attacked the strike zone with 97 mph sinkers, four-seams, changeups, and sliders. His sinker jammed righties for quick outs, and his other three pitches were used late in counts to put hitters away.
2025 is his first season back from Tommy John, and it hasn’t gone well. He’s thrown 97 innings over 19 starts and registered a 7.14 ERA. His sinker is as good as ever, but his other offerings haven’t returned to form. His four-seam fastball hasn’t been located up in the zone as frequently and the shape has started to blend with his sinker, leading to fewer swinging strikes. He hasn’t found a feel for his changeup or slider, either, and struck out fewer hitters as a result.
Why the Red Sox are out: Seven is a very high number for an ERA.
Why the Red Sox are in: The sinker is something to build on and his contract might lessen the return.
Seth Lugo – Kansas City Royals
Sharks, I’m Seth Lugo. I throw every pitch known to mankind, and several that haven’t been discovered yet.
Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Seth Lugo has been excellent since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in San Diego. Over his last three seasons, he has a 3.17 ERA over 460 innings. He throws just about every pitch besides a knuckleball, and it keeps hitters off balance. His Baseball Savant page is fairly blue, but it’s been blue for a number of years, suggesting his performance is sustainable.
I can’t fully explain how it works for Lugo, other than that hitters have a hard time guessing what’s coming. No one pitch is particularly dominant. His curveball is his best pitch, but it doesn’t blow you away. He mixes and matches his pitches well, works on both sides of the plate, and that’s enough to get the job done. If there’s a knock on Lugo, it’s that some of his peripherals suggest regression going forward. His batting average on balls in play is low at .246, while his left on base percentage is extremely high at 86.3%.
Why the Red Sox are out: Anybody who can throw that many pitches is hiding something.
Why the Red Sox are in: Nerd stats say buyer beware.
Mitch Keller – Pittsburgh Pirates
Sharks, please get me out of Pittsburgh. Please. I don’t know why I signed that extension. Please.
Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Mitch Keller has completed at least six innings in 11 of his last 13 starts. He has a 3.48 ERA over 119 innings. His stuff doesn’t jump off the page, though. His fastball sits 94 mph and is in the zone a lot for called strikes, and doesn’t miss many bats. His sweeper and slider each find the zone frequently as well, and miss some bats but aren’t devastating offerings. He also uses a sinker, curveball, and changeup, though none are go-to pitches.
His kitchen sink approach has worked well against righties, and not as well against lefties. His strikeout rate is low at 18.7%, but he doesn’t hand out free passes either. He’s an effective pitcher, but not one I’d like starting a big playoff game.
Why the Red Sox are out: Where’s the stuff?
Why the Red Sox are in: Six innings of three-run ball once every five days gives them a good chance to win games during the regular season.
Zac Gallen – Arizona Diamondbacks
Sharks, I’m in the middle of the worst season of my career. I’ve posted at least two WAR in each of the last five seasons, though, and I have World Series experience.
Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
Zac Gallen has had a rough go of it this season, but has been one of the game’s most consistent pitchers for a few years now. He has a 5.40 ERA in 115 innings and is a true rental with an expiring contract.
From an approach perspective, he’s an interesting pitcher. He’s always worked in the zone frequently, relying on a four-seam fastball for called strikes. Later in counts, he uses a curveball and a changeup below the zone to put hitters away. The issue is, at least this year, the changeup has disappeared. It was previously his go-to pitch against left-handed hitters, but all of a sudden they’ve stopped expanding the zone. The chase rate against the pitch is down 14%, leading to more walks, and lefties zeroing in on the fastball.
It might not be a totally lost cause, though. His fastball has good vertical movement and an okay approach angle. An acquiring team might want to change his eyesight and have him instead target the top of the zone with his fastball, while letting the curveball and changeup work at the top of the zone. They might also increase his cutter usage against left-handed hitters. It’s previously worked to earn strikes, but has been hit hard in recent years.
Why the Red Sox are out: Relying on a four-seam for called strikes isn’t their style.
Why the Red Sox are in: What if he threw that fastball high? What if he threw more cutters to lefties?
Trevor Bauer
Sharks, I’m seeking the league minimum and immunity for any crimes I might have committed. I won’t contribute to organizational success and will piss a lot of people off, but the dumbest fans you have will celebrate that “cancel culture” is over.
Three of the Sharks In Unison: I’m out
Mr. Wonderful: Are you interested in a convoluted deal involving royalties?