What will be the story of the next six months?
Record and Finish
79-83, Fifth Place.
There are plenty of things I like about this team. I believe that Triston Casas will take a leap into stardom in 2024. I think the rotation, while lacking an ace, will pleasantly surprise people with all five guys performing as solid number threes. I think Trevor Story, while no longer capable of playing like he did in Colorado, will hit twenty-five homers and vastly improve the defense.
And still, I think this team has no chance of making the postseason. There’s no pitching depth to help them weather the inevitable injuries. There aren’t enough consistent hitters in the lineup. The bullpen could slump after proving to be the most effective part of the team last season (relying on two guys who are 36 and 37 to be your top two relievers is asking for trouble). And it’s hard to envision any scenario in which Craig Breslow doesn’t further weaken the MLB roster by selling at the trade deadline.
This is the era of meh.
— Dan Secatore
83-79, Fourth Place
There’s plenty to like about this Red Sox roster even if it is a similar group to last season. The season’s success will likely be defined by how well the pitching holds up. If the rotation can stay healthy, and that’s a big if, I could the team earning a wild card. Although the names on the staff are familiar, they’re each a year older, more experienced, and have a new, well-respected pitching coach to help them become the best versions of themselves. Defensively, full seasons of Trevor Story and Ceddane Rafaela should greatly improve the defense, and the offense still has formidable batss.
Last season, the Red Sox were in the mix until around the trade deadline. They stood pat and the wheels promptly fell off. If they were to find themselves in a similar spot, Craig Breslow may have a hard time not supplementing his roster. In any case, I don’t deadline moves to take the team over the top, but they could be enough to add a few wins to last year’s total.
— Jacob Roy
83-79, Fifth Place
In 2001 the Red Sox went 82-79 and finished in 2nd place in the AL East. In 2002 they would win 93 games. In 2003 they would set up the dynasty and in 2004, of course, break the curse. There is no Manny Ramirez on this team but Rafael Devers and Triston Casas are going to do their darnedest. There is no Pedro Martinez on this team but Brayan Bello will do his best to carry the mantle of ace.
The Big Three prospects (or some of them) might join the team during the season. Vaughn Grissom could pull himself together and claim a Major League job at second base for half a decade. Trevor Story, healthy, could revitalize shortstop for Boston with defense and offense not really seen together at the position in, well, a while. An outfield of O’Neil, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Yoshida could be solid with the bat and pretty good defensively depending on how much time Yoshi spends on the grass.
A rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock has extraordinary error bars. Bello is a developing top-of-the-rotation guy but we don’t know if he hits that ceiling in 2024. Pivetta I truly don’t know what to make of. He was terrible and then brilliant with an opener. If he can open for himself he’s not your ideal number two starter but a guy you want in a rotation. The last three are somehow more volatile than Pivetta. Crawford at time showed he could get through a lineup. Houck had some bright spots before getting hit. And Whitlock, well, can he be Reliever Whitlock for twice the innings? There’s not much on the horizon in terms of pitching prospects. If these guys can’t rack up 5-6 innings and Quality Starts the Sox could lose a lot of games.
What’s going right in the division to sneak into fourth place? Well, the Orioles still don’t have a great rotation. The Jays haven’t made a leap and have a lot of questions. The Rays lost their best player to a scandal. And the Yankees have Cole and Judge question marks. If they don’t give up in August and September again this is probably the best last place team in MLB and going into 2025 like it went into 2002.
–Mike Carlucci
80-82, Fifth Place
If we take into account all the wheelings and dealings of Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Chief Baseball Officer, I would have given this team maybe three or four more wins and slid them up into fourth place. Why am I taking these off and putting the Sox right back in the basement? Key injuries…once again.
Vaughn Grissom’s injury puts a slight damper on the building of an infield core that includes powerhouses in Triston Casas and Rafael Devers, and a hopefully healthy Trevor Story. Enmanuel Valdez and Pablo Reyes will fill in well, but it’s not exactly what Sox fans would have hoped for. The REAL bane is losing Lucas Giolito for the season. Was the only starting pitcher Breslow picked up a flashy signing? Not in the least bit. But was he ready to become the reclamation project that ate innings and saved an extremely taxed bullpen last year? Abso-freaking-lutely he was. And now, we’re back to last year.
Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta are going to be charged with actually being good, the former taking another massive leap in his development into an ace and the latter regaining his 2021 Super Saiyan form. We witness another season of the game “Are Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock starters or relievers!” and at the moment, both are starters. Kutter Crawford rounds out this group, which is…fine? I do inherently think the offense and defense will take a step forward this season, but once again, pitching is this team’s weak spot. Can they be better with Andrew Bailey and the Run Prevention Unit leading the way? Yes, and I expect them to be with a much more impressive approach to working with the arms on this squad than the last few seasons. But that can only take you so far, and with a ceiling of talent that isn’t high within the rotation and bullpen personnel (save a few players), it can’t take them far enough.
Another offseason of begging FSG to spend money comes up short and the end result is a slightly better but not nearly good enough team, none of which the fans deserve.
— Jake Reiser
72-90, Fifth Place
Pessimist here. I’m going to keep this as short and sweet as I can knowing that I will be talking ad nauseam on a daily basis about the offseason’s shortcomings and the implications that has on organizational depth, the players’ effort, the fan’s engagement in the season and the team at large, and, obviously, team performance.
Despite quips from front office — yes, including those two words I won’t say in this article, but words Mike Carlucci says later on — this was supposed to be the offseason of improvement. And, yet, perhaps objectively, this team is worse than they were on the last day of the 2023 season — and no more improved on a standpoint of spending money to ensure the roster doesn’t have to absorb the injuries that surely happen. Matt Gross wrote a few weeks ago about the team needing to decrease their proximity to the tension point; the same can be said in decreasing the roster from a point of trotting a Triple-A team out to the most expensive ballpark to watch a baseball game. And all this on a season that we’re celebrating the anniversary of a momentous occasion of the team… this same owner… having that great combination of likable guys who played ball well and invested in both the present and the future to remain a constant contender. This is a team of half-measures in messaging, in practice, in performance, in acquisition, you name it. That’s all for this sour grapes session; apologies for what’s almost guaranteed to be more grapes to go around for the rest of 2024. At least we get to sit back knowing this team is going nowhere and measure some pieces that could be tangibly valuable to future, better performing, teams. Unless they want to be paid money anytime soon, that is.
– Dean Roussel
83-79, Fourth Place
Listen, the best thing I can say about this version of the Red Sox is that I don’t feel the crushing weight of disappointment before the season even starts. Yes, I wish they did more in the offseason but at least what they did do, they did with purpose and seemingly, a plan. A plan isn’t much but it’s more than we’ve had in years. It was refreshing to watch Breslow operate in the manner that you would expect a sober CBO to act even if that aforesaid person was hampered by an ownership that doesn’t have any interest in winning.
I’m genuinely excited about Ceddanne Rafaela and his 80 grade defense in center field. I think watching Devers and Casas hit moon shots will make me smile. Even the little things like the new names in the bullpen or seeing Bello continue to mature have me excited for spring. Maybe I’m just a sicko who spends way too much time looking at the Red Sox Roster Resource page — guilty as charged. I’m also wildly optimistic because I don’t have them finishing last. Spring is here, baseball is here, Bloom is gone, and now I can breathe easy no matter what happens.
–Jake Devereaux
I’m going to do this backwards: The Red Sox will NOT finish between 75 and 84 wins
Last year, the Red Sox did something pretty unusual. They went the entire season without ever getting ten or more games above or below .500. They were wildly mediocre. An incomplete construction zone of a roster. This year, the dam is going to break in either direction.
By most accounts, the Sox had a very good spring down in Florida, which means one of two things.
1) Everything; or
2) Absolutely nothing
Either the best acquisition the team made this winter was Andrew Bailey, and he’s a pitching whisperer, and the entire staff is going to get better, or they’re going to quickly run out of depth and melt in the summer heat. Either the team will check out early after ownership didn’t add much of anything this winter and Alex Cora will have one foot out the door by August, or the guys in the room will galvanize around each other, use it as a rallying cry, and come out extra motivated to get off to a hot start and show people they’re worthy of attention.
Whichever direction the table starts to tilt in the first couple of months is going to create a feedback loop. Four months from now, the Sox could have a sneaky impressive roster of guys who have learned to punch above their weight via a combination of career years, young guys blossoming, and good health. They will be one of those teams who grind out at-bats, get production from a new guy every night, and win in different ways. Or, four months from now they will be a complete disaster going down in flames with guys quitting after looking around at the room and seeing a total lack of depth. They will have embarrassingly anonymous names starting in August and September just to fill out the slate, and they will be on their way to their seventh last place finish in 13 years.
There are enough high variance guys on this roster for things to deviate substantially off script. I just don’t know which direction the pot is going to tilt just yet.
-Matthew Gross
80-82, Fifth Place
As an Aries, I’m a sucker for spring. I love the daffodils, the budding trees, the way you can feel the sun warming, my birthday coming up, and—generally—the optimism of a new baseball season. I want so bad to be optimistic, but this isn’t our year. Craig Breslow & Co. made one decent effort to improve our disgustingly porous infield, and that was to get Vaughn Grissom. Despite starting the year on the IL, I do have hope for him and believe he’s a real upgrade over that merry-go-round we fielded for way too long. Breslow has made other incremental improvements around the margins, some of which have already been negated by injuries. And then there’s pitching. No, it’s not his fault that the Ulnar Collateral Ligment Fairy paid a nighttime visit to Lucas Giolito. But it is his and FSG’s fault that they didn’t acquire depth to mitigate and ride out inevitable stints on the IL. It is also their fault that they didn’t make a move to formulate a true Plan B once this particular injury occurred. No matter how gritty and/or lucky our collection of players might prove to be, there’s no outplaying this kind of leadership. Or lack thereof.
— Maura McGurk
79-83, Fifth Place
An improvement on last year! Sure, there are paths to success with this Red Sox team and I won’t rule anything out (other than the strange helium that this team is a sneaky pick for worst overall MLB record), but they had to thread the needle of highest percentile outcomes in so many places, even before Lucas Giolito was ruled out for the season. Trevor Story and Tyler O’Neill have each had TWO down years in a row, Vaughn Grissom is already injured, Triston Casas has been injured three times in the past two years, Jarren Duran has had a strong half-season in his career, Ceddanne Rafaela is a rookie, Masataka Yoshida hit a wall in the second half. Can nearly all of these players reach their potential? And that’s not even bringing up Craig Breslow saying in December that he has been “pretty outspoken, pretty vocal about the need for us to improve starting pitching” and then somehow enters the season with one fewer starting pitcher than they had a year ago, and a closer whose back is already an issue.
Too many things have to go right and with a pitching staff that has very few workhorses, I fear that the Red Sox will be dipping into their 7th, 8th, and 9th starters far earlier than we would hope this season and we’ve seen that movie before.
— Bob Osgood
Who will have the most pleasantly surprising season?
Nick Pivetta.
Forget my doubts above. He’s the (after Bello) ace.
–Mike Carlucci
Tyler O’Neill.
This was a move that impressed me from CB and company. As always lately, this is contingent on O’Neill staying healthy, but if he can regain his form, I can see this working out as well as the peak of Hunter Renfroe when he was in Boston: a power RH bat with strong defense and a cannon of an arm in right field.
— Jake Reiser
Garrett Whitlock
When Garrett Whitlock broke onto the scene in 2021, he looked to me like a guy who had some down-ballot Cy Young votes in his future. Obviously that future has yet to come to pass, but in Texas two nights ago, he looked even nastier than his 2021 self. I think there’s a very good chance that, under Bailey and Breslow, he can be the team’s best pitcher this year.
— Dan Secatore
Kutter Crawford
Because he’s got to, right? All the analytics are pointing in his favor. His prominent — and solidified — spot in the rotation, however weak the rotation is, is pointing in his favor. He’s getting guys to chase, he’s striking guys out fairly well, and he’s going to have an increased role in this year’s rotation to put that on full display. If Kutter Crawford falls too short of early projections of having a breakout season, this team will be much worse than we can even anticipate. Full stop.
– Dean Roussel
Garrett Whitlock
I’m quadrupling down on this take. Garrett Whitlock will succeed as a starting pitcher this year. For the first time since 2021, he’s not battling an injury going into the season. He also appears to have made the change I’ve been begging for tweaking his sinker to add more drop, similar to his 2021 version of the pitch. He’s always been a strike thrower; if he can use his sinker and cutter to suppress hard contact, he’ll be able to get deep into games routinely. If he remains healthy, Whitlock can develop into a top starter in the American League.
— Jacob Roy
Vaughn Grissom
After being sidelined for a short while while recovering from a strained groin, Vaughn Grissom is going to win a lot of Sox fans over. Second base has been a revolving door of mediocrity since Dustin Pedroia’s health took a turn for the worse and he was forced to call it quits. In Grissom we have a guy who will maintain a high batting average, make a ton of contact, and play the game with an edge. Even if Chris Sale pitches incredibly this season for Atlanta, we will all be happy with the fact that Grissom is the future at the keystone.
–Jake Devereaux
Trevor Story
People are about to find out how many different ways Story can impact a game when he’s right. Power, defense, baserunning, leadership. It’s an absolute joy to watch when it all comes together! Get a full season of good health out of him and he will come back with MVP votes. Oh, and if this happens with the team anywhere close to playoff contention, it will go to another level because in that scenario his wide array of weapons will start netting the Sox wins in a variety of different meaningful ballgames.
-Matthew Gross
Vaughn Grissom
I’m in agreement with Jake Devereaux here. I think Vaughn Grissom will be a breath of fresh air in the infield. I mean, certainly nothing could be worse than the revolving door we fielded at second for so long, could it? [Murphy’s Law, do not strike me down!] Post-IL, I foresee him settling comfortably into a smooth role in the field. He has the oh-so-professional Trevor Story as a model, and the confidence that must come from knowing that he’s a far better defender than the two remaining infielders (at least for now; Triston Casas still has the time and temperament to grow in the field). And also? I know that Chris Sale has had a very fine spring, but I’m thankful to Vaughn Grissom for removing this scarecrow from around our necks.
— Maura McGurk
Jarren Duran
The tone in which everyone is talking about Jarren Duran entering this season, you would think that he had only one hot month to end 2023 and we shall see if he can carry it forward to 2024. In reality, from the day that Duran got called up last season, he hit the ground running and didn’t stop until a slow two-week stretch in August before his season ended due to a toe injury. In the 88 games that Duran played (72 starts) from April 17th through August 4th, Duran slashed .317/.367/.522 with 32 doubles, 8 home runs, a 23-for-25 success rate stealing bases, and a 137 wRC+. I’m not sure how much more you could ask for. He seems like he finally has gained the trust of Alex Cora and will be hitting leadoff to start the season. I’m expecting Duran to continue to run wild on the bases with the new rules and be an integral part of this Sox lineup all season long.
— Bob Osgood
Who will have the most disappointing season?
Jarren Duran.
Sorry, Bob, but BABIP don’t lie.
— Dan Secatore
Connor Wong.
I like Connor Wong. And this is in no way saying he’s not the best option they have. He’s a fine player and can hold down catcher on this team but he’s a low-average, low-OBP hitter who can control the running game and likely is what he is at this point.
–Mike Carlucci
Connor Wong.
Hard not to agree with Mike, here. Combine that with what looked like a strong spring from Reese McGuire and now Kyle Teel breathing down his neck from the minors, it’s hard not to see Wong as the odd man out behind the dish…and maybe sooner rather than later.
— Jake Reiser
Rafael Devers.
Put your pitchforks down. I do not believe Rafael Devers will have a bad season by any means. But disappointment is subjective, and as Maura McGurk pointed out a few weeks ago, these sub-4-WAR seasons, thanks to uninspired defensive play, are becoming a trend unbecoming of someone you have under contract for another decade, as well as someone you have penciled in as the face of the franchise for these years. I’m glad to be proven wrong but if I’m not, and Devers leads the AL in errors by a third baseman for a seventh consecutive season, I’d be just as happy about the front office coming together to optimize Devers’ presence in the locker room and many strengths at the plate to utilize his services better.
– Dean Roussel
Nick Pivetta
Stuff+ be damned. I know who Nick Pivetta is. I don’t really care how good he was in the second half last year or what he may have figured out after being demoted to the bullpen. At 31 years old I have more than enough evidence to tell me that this dog won’t hunt. Pivetta’s career ERA over 883.2 innings pitched is 4.86. If this isn’t enough to remind you why he was kicked out of the 2023 Red Sox rotation then you have bigger things than Pivetta’s pitching acumen to worry about. Many have been fooled by Pivetta before, not me. I know who he is.
–Jake Devereaux
Rafael Devers
He’ll have another good, but not truly great, year at the plate, but his errors will again haunt us all. You might ask, if a player is typically below average, can it really be considered a disappointment if he continues to perform at that sub-par level? I will reply that, usually when a player sets a record it’s cause for celebration, but I predict Devers will break his own record of six consecutive years leading AL third basemen in errors—and I won’t be happy about it.
— Maura McGurk
Kenley Jansen
Jansen started camp very slowly with a balky back and got the “we’re running out of days for him to be ready” tag from Alex Cora last week. He seems to be getting the requisite amount of work in to be on the Opening Day roster but how “ready” will he truly be? Jansen, understandably, was vocal about ownership not giving this roster the help that they expected in the offseason, and as a pitcher who has been on perennial playoff teams for his entire career, how is he going to feel in June if this team underperforms for both years of his contract with the Red Sox? He’s also voiced his displeasure this spring in regards to additional shortening of the pitch clock entering 2024. I wrote early in the offseason that it would be a mistake to trade the 36-year-old Kenley Jansen to fill other holes on the team but now seeing the finished product of this roster entering the season, I may have jumped the gun.
— Bob Osgood
Amongst the newcomers, whose City Connect jersey will we see the most around Fenway by Labor Day?
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Vaughn Grissom
- Tyler O’Neill
- Isaiah Campbell
- Wilyer Abreu
- Wow, that’s really it for newcomers, huh? Umm, ok, how about Trevor Story? He’s still kind of new.
Rafaela is the easy choice here. And I’m taking the easy choice. If all these guys have a good April-July he’s the most dynamic and has the most impressive variety of skills.
–Mike Carlucci
Give me Abreu if not Rafaela. His swing is something to behold and I think he can become a fan favorite deeper down the lineup.
— Jake Reiser
Isn’t Triston Casas still sort of new? I vote him. There’s two Boston player archetypes that I love, and one now plays outfield for the Yankees. The other one, if even playing on a niche Boston persona, should be a fan favorite here for years to come.
– Dean Roussel
I don’t know who wrote the list above, but it’s blatant Cooper Criswell erasure and I won’t stand for it.
— Jacob Roy
Rafaela is the right answer here, look, defense is sexy, yellow is sexy, ergo Rafaela is sexy.
–Jake Devereaux
Rafaela is the fella who will get people to don the yella.
-Matthew Gross
If you’re going to make an investment in a jersey, the player should have some flair and some staying power. I have a feeling by the end of April, Ceddanne Rafaela will have both of those things in this city after he makes five highlight-reel catches and holds his own offensively.
— Maura McGurk
In 10 years, the 2024 Red Sox season will be remembered for. . .
The Fan Apathy
For most of my life, being a Red Sox fan has been a tribal marker for New Englanders. Hating the Yankees, singing Sweet Caroline, and carving the Red Sox logo into your pumpkin during the playoffs were totems of personal identity, not mere fandom. Even people who didn’t know a DH from a PhD got swept up in the currents of Red Sox Nation — and it made the team fabulously wealthy.
That dynamic has almost entirely collapsed. This collapse happened slowly, starting with the Mookie trade, and then suddenly over the last few months, as one PR disaster after another accompanied an offseason in which, inexplicably, the team decided to do almost nothing to improve upon last year’s roster. Now, most of my neighbors don’t talk about the Red Sox at all; when they do, it’s often with a measure of befuddlement in their voices, like the team is someone from their past they’ve lost track of. The Red Sox? Oh yeah, I remember them. What happened to those guys?
It’s depressing, and it will be readily apparent all summer long. There will be swaths of empty seats through the early and late stages of the season; and even in the middle of July and August, the Sox will come up in casual conversation only after all the Celtics, Bruins, and Patriots stuff has been exhausted.
All we can hope for at this point is that this is the nadir, and not the new normal.
— Dan Secatore
Lighting the beacons.
The Red Sox haven’t had much to be excited about the last few seasons. But they have a few young guys joining the team to start the season. A few top prospects trying to knock on the door. Their first real young pitcher since…Jon Lester? Clay Buchholz? If we take the comments from ownership and the front office at face value (aside from Full Throttle) and the rumors of a big push for Yamamoto then 2024 should be the nadir or the first year of the upswing. That might not show up in the wins and losses depending on the youth movement and the success of that youth. But this team was close to contention the last two years and withheld aid because of a mythical “future.”
If Craig Breslow has the freedom to at least keep doing small moves and adding small dollars during the year they might now bottom out again. The pitching is an insane tightrope. But if they can hold on they might just surprise with 80+ wins. Rōki Sasaki is likely to be available this winter. There’s a chance (barely, after passing on all the free agents) to do the right thing in 2024 and not punt. If they do that then this will be looked at as the beginning of the next chapter in Red Sox baseball.
–Mike Carlucci
The vilification of ownership
20 years ago, the thought seems almost unfathomable. Theo Epstein in tow, a new ownership group hungry to change the destiny of a franchise that had been plagued by a curse for 86 god damn long seasons. Truly bolstering the roster with Mark Bellhorn, a young Gabe Kapler, a true closer in Keith Foulke, a star front of the rotation pitcher in Curt Schilling–yes, that feels weird to type in 2024 but it’s facts back then–bringing in Terry Francona (best wishes in retirement, Tito!) to lead a group desperate to become something more than themselves and bring joy back to the city.
Today? It ties right back into Dan’s point above. A city KNOWN for being diehard about all its teams is apathetic about the Red Sox, one of its most storied franchises, and it’s all on the shoulders of John Henry and the rest of ownership. The lack of investment — when FSG/Red Bird snatch up other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Liverpool FC, and plans for more —and even the frustration of watching them pour money into at least one of these other clubs (I am a Liverpool fan, so I’m thankful but conflicted seeing FSG spend a crap-load of money rebuilding the midfield with Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szobozlai, Wataru Endo and Ryan Gravenberch), and not spending on your hometown club. Their name is FENWAY Sports Group. Not “White Multimillionaire Sports Owners, Inc.” How the Red Sox aren’t first and foremost a priority, or at least that’s how it feels to me, is just baffling.
FSG did bring back Epstein in a larger role, and he will certainly have a hand in the Red Sox once again. Is that going to be enough to open their pockets and bring magic back to America’s Most Beloved Ballpark? Or are we going to watch this team sink lower than they already are and see the reputations of the group of leaders who created a baseball dynasty continue to swirl the drain? One of my favorite movie quotes of all time is “You either die a hero or you live long enough to become the villain.” FSG are becoming the villain, but there’s still time to change that: if they’re self-aware enough to recognize that.
— Jake Reiser
The year Fenway faithful will not remember 2024, whether by choice or alcohol consumption, unless, of course, you own a bar near the park. You’ll remember this year.
I’ve talked all off-season and I’ll talk enough this entire year. I’m just keeping it that simple.
— Dean Roussel
Finding the next core
By the end of 2024 we will know which players will be part of the next World Series team. Over the grind of 162 a player’s strengths and weaknesses get exposed, there is no hiding from the grind. Anyone can have a hot first half like Alex Verdugo did last year or a hot second half like Bobby Dalbec in 2021. What matters is how you play and, just as importantly, how you conduct yourself over 162.
I can make some guesses about who will pass that test and be riding on the duck boats in the future, but I won’t. I will be watching and taking notes during this season as I decide which players I think the Sox should feel comfortable rolling with in the future.
—Jake Devereaux
“Full Throttle”
It’s the phrase that will define the 2024 Red Sox no matter what happens at this point. Either as a mocking gesture to the gaslighting of fans from ownership, or as a rallying cry to show respect for the roster that somehow went all out, defied the odds, and played their way into contention.
A lot of creativity in the stands today pic.twitter.com/j4yryHsiAn
— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) March 17, 2024
-Matthew Gross
A half-empty park (except for road teams that travel well)
2024: The season that the Fenway crowd changed the lyrics from “Sweeeeet Car-o-line” to “Pleeeeease sell-the-team”.
— Bob Osgood