While the Red Sox have spent most of the offseason focused on the trade market to augment their roster, they now appear to be turning their attention towards free agency. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported in an appearance on an episode of the podcast “First Up with Korolnek and Colaiacovo” (audio link courtesy of Foul Territory’s Robbie Hyde) that the Red Sox made an “aggressive” offer to Bregman before speculating that Bregman will ultimately return to Boston.
The market for position players has been fairly quiet since Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso signed during the Winter Meetings last month. While third baseman Kazuma Okamoto’s free agency wrapped up yesterday when he signed with the Blue Jays on a four-year deal, Bregman remains the top dog available at the position ahead of Eugenio Suarez, Ramon Urias, and Yoan Moncada. The best overall infield talent available this winter aside from Bo Bichette, Bregman lingered on the free agent market last offseason before signing a three-year, $120MM contract with Boston that included multiple opt outs and significant deferred money. That deal worked out quite well for both sides, as Bregman turned in a 125 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR in 118 games before returning to the open market this winter.
With that said, he’s once again struggled to find a market for the sort of long-term deal he’s been seeking. Boston has been known to have interest in a reunion, but there have been indications that the Red Sox are reluctant to go long-term on him (or any other free agent, for that matter). They’ve kicked the tires on plenty of alternative options this winter, ranging from trades for infield talents like Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan, and Isaac Paredes to pivoting towards another player like Okamoto or Bichette in free agency. At this point, however, Okamoto is off the market and Marte appears unlikely to be dealt.
Perhaps the dwindling alternatives have led Boston to step up their pursuit of a Bregman reunion, though it should be noted that an “aggressive” offer does not necessarily mean a long-term one. It could certainly be argued that the $40MM average annual value (which dropped to just under $32MM after factoring in deferred money) deal Bregman signed with the Red Sox last year was an “aggressive” offer thanks to the high annual salary and player-friendly opt out structure, and that deal maxed out at just three seasons. So, too, could the Tigers’ best offer to Bregman from last winter be called aggressive, as the six-year, $171.5MM offer topped the winning bid by more than $50MM in terms of total guarantee and was the longest of the final offers Bregman received.
Regardless of what Boston’s offer to Bregman currently looks like, it seems as though market forces may be pushing the two sides back together. As previously mentioned, a few of the Red Sox’s potential alternatives to Bregman have started to come off the market or otherwise become less likely. Meanwhile, Bregman’s own alternatives to Boston could also be dwindling. Just as Okamoto signing in Toronto takes him off the table for the Red Sox, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that the deal makes Bregman signing with the Jays less likely despite mutual interest between the sides prior to Okamoto’s signing. Likewise, there have been connections drawn between Bregman and the Diamondbacks, but that could become less viable for Arizona to pull off financially if a Marte trade is taken off the table.
Even if the Jays and Diamondbacks aren’t the likeliest suitors at this point, other options are still available. The Cubs remain involved in Bregman’s market at least to some extent, though they (like the Red Sox) seem hesitant to commit to long-term deals for most players. The Tigers have seemingly remained on the periphery of Bregman’s market but don’t seem to be an especially aggressive suitor. The Phillies were recently reported to have at least some interest in Bichette and could theoretically fit Bregman as well, though they haven’t been tied to Bregman directly and even the Bichette connection seems to run in contrast with previous reporting suggesting that their room to spend is somewhat limited at this point.