He’s got the fastball for it.
The number of fastballs thrown across baseball seemingly decreases each season. So far this season, 54.9% of pitches thrown have been fastballs. If this holds, it will be the lowest percentage of fastballs since pitch tracking was introduced. It’s probably safe to assume it’s the lowest percentage in the history of the sport, but I won’t say that definitively because weird stuff went on back in the 1920s.
Despite the decline in fastball usage, the pitch is still king. Many of the best pitchers in the game have dominant fastballs: Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Garrett Crochet, to name a few.
What makes a fastball great? Velocity, release, and shape are a few factors outside of the obvious command. Throwing harder and releasing the ball closer to the plate gives hitters less time to react. Creating a “flat” attack angle makes it difficult for opponents to barrel the ball.
The Red Sox have a pitcher in their system who possesses these qualities in Payton Tolle. Tolle, 22, was drafted in the second round in 2024 out of TCU. He’s built like a starting pitcher at 6’6”, 250 pounds, and maximizes his frame.
When the Red Sox drafted Tolle, his fastball sat about 91 mph. At times this season, he’s sat 95 mph and maxed out at 98 mph. He also uses his huge frame to stride down the mound, averaging over seven feet of extension. On one recent pitch, he released the ball 7’10” down the mound. That’s roughly 13% of the distance between the rubber and the plate. When I read 7’10”, I thought it was a mistake.
He’s also creating good vertical movement on his fastball. This, combined with the release height in part due to how low on the mound he gets, makes the pitch incredibly flat.
Some comparable pitches include Joe Ryan’s fastball. Ryan has a lower release and less extension, but similar velocity. His fastball is one of the flattest among starting pitchers and holds a 15.9% swinging strike rate.
Milwaukee Brewers prospect Jacob Misiorowski debuted recently. He averaged 99 mph with his four-seam fastball. Tolle can’t do that, but the two have similar release points and vertical movement. Misiorowski’s vertical approach angle is in the 98th percentile among starting pitchers and has been excellent so far. Extreme velocity certainly helps in that department, but the extension and shape contribute as well.
Of course, there’s more to pitching than just zipping a fastball by hitters. Tolle throws a slider, cutter, and changeup as well. None of the pitches, according to scouts, are particularly polished, but he’s still early enough in his pitching career where he can tinker and find the complementary pieces that work best for him.
Tolle was promoted to Double-A Portland following his start on Sunday. The lefty has been in the organization for less than a year and has already made considerable improvements on the mound. With time, he could become the next great Red Sox starter.