Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

Despite end-of-season promises of a “full-throttle” approach to the 2023-24 offseason, things were fairly quiet for the Red Sox during their first year under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow‘s guidance as the club prioritized short-term commitments in free agency and on the trade market without making a major splash. That led to another disappointing season at Fenway where the club posted a lackluster 81-81 record that landed them third place in the AL East and four games out of an AL Wild Card spot. After a season that saw a number of youngsters take steps forward and with more prospect talent nearing the majors, Breslow’s second winter at the helm figures to be more active than his first.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Rafael Devers, 3B: $284MM through 2033
• Trevor Story, SS: $77.5MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout on 2028 club option)
• Masataka Yoshida, DH: $55.8MM through 2027
• Brayan Bello, SP: $53.33MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on 2030 club option)
• Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS: $48.75MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on 2032 club option)
• Liam Hendriks, RP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option)
• Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $14MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for ’28)

Option Decisions

• Lucas Giolito, SP: Exercised $19MM player option
• Rob Refsnyder, OF: Team holds $2.1MM club option with $150K buyout

2025 financial commitments: $105.93MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $562.79MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Tanner Houck (3.100): $4.5MM
• Jarren Duran (2.155): $4.9MM
• Kutter Crawford (2.136): $3.5MM

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

• Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta, Tyler O’Neill, Danny Jansen, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims

Disappointing as the 2024 season was for the Red Sox in terms of their record, one major silver lining for the club this winter is that the majority of their key contributors remain under long-term team control, meaning they’ll be able to focus more on upgrading the roster than patching holes created by departing veterans. In particular, they’re extremely well set-up in the outfield with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all currently locked in at the major league level, not to mention the presence of Masataka Yoshida and (assuming his club option is picked up as expected) Rob Refsnyder.

With top prospect Roman Anthony knocking on the door of the majors and even getting some buzz as Baseball America‘s #1 prospect, the Red Sox remain flush in outfield talent even as they watch Tyler O’Neill and his 30-homer power depart for free agency. Of course, that’s not to say O’Neill’s bat won’t be sorely missed in the Red Sox lineup. As a team, their 104 wRC+ was a hair above average, placing them in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Mariners for the tenth-best figure in the majors. While that’s certainly a respectable number, even a prospect as talented as Anthony can’t be expected to seamlessly replace the 131 wRC+ O’Neill provided to the club in a resurgent 2024 season.