Monday Morning Brushback: Still Here

The Red Sox week in review dives into Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, and our All-Stars.

After a few weeks off, the MMBB—much like Oasis—is back. I’m glad to have you with me once more, folks.

Even after a prolonged period of time between Brushbacks, I feel like I’m about to write an intro that I have dozens of times over the past few years: after an up-and-down stretch of games, the Boston Red Sox stand right around the .500 mark and just on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. If I had a dollar for every time I wrote something to that effect on Over The Monster, I’d be able to buy the domain name myself.

But I can’t just come here and tell ya any different: we’re still the same mediocre club we’ve been for the last few seasons now. One night the offense can only string together three or four hits, the next they drive in a baker’s dozen to score. One night the starter gets chased and the bullpen gets more added to their workload, the next you get a quality start from whoever toes the rubber first.

With that in mind, maybe this next bit is foolish for me to say. Maybe I shouldn’t expect anything more than the .500 baseline going forward in 2025. But whatever: let’s give it a whirl:

Is this upcoming week the most important of the season, in terms of chances to get back into the playoff hunt proper?

We’ve got seven games—all at Fenway Park—until the All-Star break. We stand one game above .500, just on the outside of a wild card spot looking in. The Colorado Rockies—a team that is currently on pace to be worse than the 2024 White Sox, the worst team I’ve seen in my entire life—come into town for a trio of games before the Sox start a four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays, a team we’re directly competing with for a playoff spot.

You’ve gotta go, like, 5-2 this week, right? If you want a chance to get back into contention with enforcement from the likes of Alex Bregman (hopefully) coming soon, and if you want to realistically be a buyer at the deadline, this has to be the stretch where you finally build some momentum.

Because if that momentum is not established, you leave yourself in one hell of a pickle following the ASG: the Sox have the Cubs (over 50 wins), the Phillies (also over 50 wins), and the Daaaaahdjurz (you probably don’t need me to tell you this one, but they have over 50 wins as well) as your next three serieseseses.

Long story short: do the damage now. Until then, let’s look back at the week that was.

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

Wil’s Thrills

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Any time you hit an inside-the-park homer and a grand slam in the same game, you get to leadoff the MMBB. Those are the rules, simple as. Wilyer Abreu fits the bill.

Not all of Wilyer’s damage this week came on Monday, though, as he also drove in runs during the final pair of matchups against Cincy and he was also one of many players to pitch in on the demolition of the Washington Nationals on our nation’s birthday.

After a hot start, Abreu slowed down a bit before being shelved for a few days in June due to an oblique injury. Since making his return off the IL on June 20, though, he has a .311 average with 4 home runs, 17 RBIs, and 9 runs scored.

Abreu’s ability to pull the ball with authority has been really pronounced in 2025, as his expected slugging metric of .517 entering Saturday (he didn’t start Saturday, as I’m writing this, so this is what I’m going off of) is good for the 85th percentile in MLB per Savant, thanks in part to how well he’s placing the ball to the pull side. Pull-side damage has been a hallmark of the hitting philosophy for this iteration of the organization; Wilyer has demonstrated that to a T.

One thing I’ve appreciated in Abreu’s development: he’s cut the swing-and-misses down considerably. While he was whiffing at a roughly 30% clip throughout his career prior to 2025, resulting in a strikeout rate of about 28% in that time (read as: not good), he’s slashed the whiff rate down to just over 23% and the strikeout rate to just under 24%. The swing-and-miss stuff isn’t entirely absent from his profile—his whiff rate is close to the 60th percentile (so, not incredibly by any stretch) and he’s still close to the bottom third in the league when it comes to K%—but he’s demonstrating an ability to put up even more competitive ABs than he has in the past, when he was already slugging north of .450 and drawing his fair share of walks.

Mix these strides at the plate with his skills in the outfield—elite range in right at Fenway and a cannon of an arm are not things to sneeze at—and you’ve got yourself a great player, even if he’s not going to play a ton against lefties. I don’t have many notes for Mr. Abreu; keep it up, dude.

Roman’s Revenge

Photo by Alyssa Howell/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Oh yeah, it’s all coming together for Roman Anthony.

The outfield prospect extraordinaire’s surface level stats during his first few games in the bigs were nothing to write home about. After getting the call up from AAA in early June, Anthony notches just a pair of hits across 27 at-bats in his first nine games (a batting average of .074, for those keeping track at home).

But those who were actually watching his plate appearances knew that the breakthrough was coming. He was consistently hitting balls on the screws, much like he did in the minors. You can’t keep a good man down like that for long. At some point, the cream will rise to the top—and I think we’re in the midst of that rise as we live and breathe.

To keep it consistent with the Abreu analysis: in the 15 games since the start of the series in San Francisco on June 20, Anthony has been good for 16 hits (including six doubles). He doesn’t have enough of a sample size to qualify for Statcast’s leaderboards, but if you were to extrapolate his production he’d be towards the top of a number of categories: his xwOBA, barrel rate, hard hit rate, bat speed, and squared-up rate are all impressive, while his average exit velocity of 94.3 MPH entering Sunday would trail just Oneil Cruz, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto. So, pretty good company!

On top of his batted ball profile, Anthony’s plate approach has made him look like less of a 21-year-old and more of a 31-year-old. He’s not swinging at garbage; his chase rate entering Sunday hovered just over 20%. You get some swing-and-miss from him, but those whiffs are something I’m willing to live with when you consider the damage he can deal out when he does connect. Long time readers of the Brushback know that I love me a guy who can work a count, though, and Anthony’s already demonstrating an ability to do so; he ain’t chasing, and that’s resulted in a walk rate of 13% prior to Sunday’s finale in DC. I don’t care how much pedigree he has as a prospect; a 21-year-old putting up competitive ABs like that after just a month at the highest level of the game is impressive. It’s just another tool in Anthony’s belt when he steps into the box.

Roman Anthony is special. We’re lucky enough to watch him bloom right before our eyes. Enjoy it.

Hey Now, You’re An All-Star

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

A quick word about the Red Sox’s All-Star selections, as lefties Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman have been given the nod to take the trip down to Hotlanta next week, while Alex Bregman is going to have to decline the invitation to continue rehab.

With Crohcet, what else can I say? He’s been everything I had hoped for when we traded for him in the winter, and then some, with a 2.39 ERA and a league-leading 151 strikeouts. He is, legitimately, one of the best pitchers in the sport. It’s nice to be able to say that once more.

As for Chapman, who’s only allowed six earned runs in 36 innings and who’s registered a WHIP way below 1.00, he presents a more interesting point that Sean McAdam of MassLive made over the weekend:

“As deadline draws closer, Red Sox should deal Aroldis Chapman,” the headline read.

To bring it back to the intro section of this edition of the MMBB: if the Sox can’t build some momentum prior to the Midsummer Classic, and then all of a sudden we’re whacked by the likes of the Cubbies and the Phightin’ Phils before heading back home to take on LA…yeah it would make total sense to flip Chapman. The same guy was just traded to the Rangers a few years ago for Cole Ragans; considering how well he’s been pitching, and considering he’s on a one-year deal, a contender would pay fairly handsomely for his services.

Maybe we wouldn’t get a Cole Ragans of our own in return, but it would behoove us to get some value for Chapman if we just shit the bed in July anyways. Him being dealt would probably be the fallout of our wild card dreams evaporating post-ASG, but at least I wouldn’t have to feel like I need to take a shower after watching him pitch if he were to be traded.

Song of the Week: “Honky Tonk Women” by The Rolling Stones

Been stuck in my head all week. Damn good song.

I’ll be in Nashville next week for a wedding (pray for my liver), so no MMBB—but we’ve got something else cookin’ in the meantime. Until then, go Sox.