Monday Morning Brushback: Decision time

The Red Sox week-in-review dives into Garrett Crochet, Ceddanne Rafaela, and potential targets ahead of the trade deadline.

Well, would you look at that: even after one hell of a stretch against a trio of the National League’s best competition, the Boston Red Sox have not ceased operations.

A still-functioning organization? Sure. A leaps-and-bounds success since the start of the second half of the season? Not quite. The Sox’s nine games against the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers following the All-Star Game have resulted in a 4-5 record record. Any team with aspirations of going all the way in October should be aiming well north of .500 during any stretch like this—even against some top-tier teams—and Boston fell short of that. That’s disappointing.

In spite of that, though, I can’t get myself too worked up: there were flashes of brilliance spliced in between some of the tough losses. That win in Philly was one of the best wins of the season, as was the win at Fenway on Saturday. Call me naive, but maybe there are some lessons to be learned after dropping some sets against legit contenders while this relatively young core tries to throw their hat into that conversation themselves. This is a good (if not great) team, and the path to the postseason is still wide open. The opportunity is there for the taking, even after these hiccups.

This outcome’s a bit of a microcosm for what lies ahead for the Red Sox, no?

We sit here, just prior to Thursday’s trade deadline, right on the precipice (I can’t believe I spelled that word right on the first try!) of the wild card cut as the Rangers are surging while the Yankees and Rays are slumping. We should be aiming higher than just the third and final wild card spot, of course, but the chance at autumn glory is within the realm of possibility.

Your belief in how likely that is may vary depending on your thoughts on the roster now and how it will look by the time I write this article next week. Whether or not they get that invitation to the dance hinges on whether or not they can weather the next wave of tough competition (the Astros twice over after the upcoming trip to Minnesota, along with a date with the San Diego Dads) and take advantage of a softer run in the latter half of August (Orioles times two along with the [Scott Stapp of Creed voice] MARLINSSSSSSSSS).

So, it’s easy to look at things with both a glass half empty and half full mentality. Boston’s record against really good teams since the break is sub-.500, but the path to improving the team seems pretty evident (more on that later). Ground that might potentially be lost after additional tough matchups could easily be made right back up against some of MLB’s bottom feeders.

All that is to say that it’s decision time: how will the powers that be decide to move forward into the rest of 2025 and the future, how will they supplement the current iteration of the team, and how will we be looking at the glass once Thursday comes and goes?

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

Boss Hog

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

I don’t know how much analysis of substance you need to know that Garrett Crochet is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but I would be remiss if I didn’t take some time every now and again to write that out properly. Actually: if you’ll indulge me, allow me to do so again:

Garrett Crochet is one of the best pitchers in baseball…man does it feel good to be able to confidently say that.

What is there to complain about? Seriously? This guy’s been everything we wanted when we traded for him in December and then some. The strikeout stuff is absurd (11.1 K/9 and a 31% K-rate; lmao, as the kids say), his quality of contact metrics aren’t a concern, he shows great command for a power pitcher while limiting walks (his 6.7 BB% is good for the 76th percentile as of the time of me writing this on Sunday), and he’s been doing it with elite volume (his 141.1 innings pitched is the most in the league). All of his primary offerings—the heater, the cutter, the sinker, and the sweeper—are impressive.

I do think that the numbers—which are fantastic, of course—don’t tell you the full story, though. Actually being able to sit down and watch this dude dominate is quite the experience, ain’t it?

Saturday’s moment in the 4th inning is the prime example of that: runners on the corners with in a one-run game as perhaps the greatest player we’ve ever seen steps up to the plate. How does Crochet respond? Why, by striking Shohei Ohtani out on three pitchers, of course.

Having the ability to log 11 punch outs against the defending World Series champions on a nationally televised game is one of the reasons why you pony up to get an ace; a proof of concept, if you will. To have that juice in Boston once again, that’s a sight for sore eyes. We’re privileged that we get to watch Garrett Crochet—for a third time, one of the best pitchers in baseball—for years to come.

Ceddy to Second?

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Now this situation…I don’t have as many glowing words about. Why are we playing Ceddanne Rafaela at second base more often, as opposed to keeping him in center field?

Well, I suppose I know the answer to that: the outfield logjam—the law firm of Rafaela-Duran-Abreu-Yoshida-Anthony-Refsnyder—continues to loom over the Sox’s roster construction, while Marcelo Mayer’s mystery wrist injury sustained a few days ago has forced another issue. Given Rafaela’s utility usage in the past, moving him to the infield is certainly one of the solutions to the pickle currently at hand.

But again: ………………………….why isn’t he in center full-time?

I don’t necessarily envy Craig Breslow in the days leading up to the trade deadline. He’s got a major decision looming, whether or not an outfield chip is traded this upcoming week. Deciding against flipping someone like Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu is a decision in and of itself, of course.

Regardless of the circumstances, regardless of who stays or goes or come in, I just don’t think that the Red Sox’s best roster features Ceddy at second as opposed to center field.

For what it’s worth: defense at second base is quite important. FanGraphs’ value adjusted positional list—the Gospel according to Metrics when it comes to positional value on defense—values second and center the same over the course of 162 tilts. That makes sense on the surface, as the backbone of good defensive teams is built up the middle.

In that vacuum, perhaps shifting Rafaela to second every so often makes some sense. These things don’t exist in a pure vacuum, though. Unlike Matty Healy of The 1975, I am not taking out context in this modern debate like a gray hair in one of my zoots (maaaaaaaaybe two of you got that reference right off the rip).

Let’s not kid ourselves: as gifted as Ceddy is with the leather, he’s not nearly as good in the infield as he is in the outfield. He’s set a high standard for himself while patrolling center, sure, but that’s because he’s arguably the best defensive outfielder in the sport. His elite range (99th percentile entering play on Sunday) and arm strength (96th percentile at that same time). I’m especially confused in regards to the arm strength angle; how much good is that arm doing in second as opposed the outfield?

I don’t have all the answers for you, dear reader. I don’t know exactly how the front office will be approaching this situation going forward. What I do feel in my heart of hearts is that the proper road forward is…….well, not this. I think that the best iteration of these Red Sox feature Ceddanne in center. Perhaps this decision is an endorsement for Duran’s facilities patrolling center (which, to be fair, was quite good in 2024; he’s been, uh, not quite good in left in 2025 if we’re keeping it a buck, though). Regardless, I still think it’s a good idea to have an all-world center fielder playing in center field.

Let’s Make a Deal

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve mentioned it a few times throughout this edition of the MMBB, but let’s start a conversation about the trade deadline in earnest. I invite you to put all of your thoughts, predictions, analysis, and wishes in the comments below for posterity: so that we can all look back and marvel at your genius, since YOU—yes, YOU reading this—will get all of your calls correct.

Allow me to start the proceedings. If I had to name three things that this team needs heading into deadline day, in order, I’d say the Red Sox need:

1. Another higher-end starter; someone you can slot in alongside Crochet and Bello to make a formidable 1-2-3. Preference goes to a cost-controlled guy, but if the quality of the pitcher is good enough I’m fine with the team taking on someone on a contract year and seeing if they can work out a deal in the coming days/weeks/months.

2. A first base option, preferably someone who can hit from the right side. God bless Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez, who have been valiant in their roles over at first following the Triston Casas injury, but we need to raise the ceiling of this offensive attack and get a proper first baseman into the lineup for our benefit on both sides of the ball.

3. A backup catcher. God bless Connor Wong, but something’s gotta give on that front. Doesn’t have to be anything crazy; just someone who has more than a 13 OPS+ and who can give us steady defensive backing while Carlos Narvaez gets a night off every now and then.

You could contend that another starter or one more reliable bullpen piece would be in your top three; I wouldn’t argue with you, but this is just my top three wants as Thursday looms.

I don’t want to sit here all day and dissect every single person who would (or wouldn’t) fit the bill for these asks; we’re already at damn-near 1,800 words anyways. So very quickly, here’s just some names I like for all three of those points.

1. Mitch Keller (team-controlled, could swindle ol’ pal Ben Cherington), Merrill Kelly (contract year, could be had without having to sacrifice a substantial amount of prospect capital considering the return the D-Backs got for Josh Naylor), Joe Ryan and Michael King (duh), and Edward Cabrera (arb-controlled through 2028, doesn’t walk a ton of guys, has some solid strikeout upside and can initiate his fair share of grounders—I’m not in on another reclamation project with his teammate Sandy Alcantara, though).
2. Eugenio Suarez (I can dream of him coming to Boston and shifting over the first, right?! It’s unrealistic, but who knows), Ryan O’Hearn (could be tough to get a trade done with a division rival in Bal’mer, but I think he’d slot in perfectly and could be had relatively cheaply [is that a word?] considering he’s set to hit free agency), Jake Burger (IF, key word IF, we can get a deal with the Rangers done on the cheap; his horrid start is behind him, as his rolling xwOBA has been above average as of late, so maybe he could act as a high upside addition if all else fails. Just trying to think outside the box, folks).
3. Anybody. Literally anybody. Anyone who can catch well and offer a lil’ jolt of excitement on offense here and there.

Anywho, I’m excited to see none of these players come to Boston this week!

Song of the Week: “Wuthering Heights” by Kate Bush

My MIL’s birthday was on Sunday, so I gave her the choice for the SOTW. This was the choice; shout out to Kate Bush and shout out to my MIL.

Same time and same place next week, friends! Go Sox.