We might have something here.
My expectations for Lucas Giolito before his start on Wednesday were not high. He hadn’t pitched since 2023 and hadn’t been consistently effective since 2021. I won’t pretend I watched any of his rehab outings, but the results weren’t good, and reports weren’t glowing. Had he made it through the lineup twice, holding his velocity throughout the outing and showing some feel for his secondaries, I would have been happy.
But Lucas Giolito had other plans, throwing five shutout innings for the Red Sox against the Blue Jays before running into some trouble in the sixth. He did it with virtually only two pitches, making me wonder if my expectations were far too low.
Giolito has always used a fastball as his primary pitch, typically about 40-50% of the time. It’s never been an overpowering pitch, but it’s always been a dependable strike-getter with about average swing-and-miss. There was a lot made about his declining velocity in 2023, which was certainly a factor, but when I took a closer look before the 2024 season, I found that he can be successful with the pitch as long as he keeps it up in the zone.
If you look at the velocity between the different stints, Giolito was actually throwing harder after leaving Chicago, which to me indicates that location was more of an issue in late 2023. On Wednesday, Giolito’s fastball command wasn’t immaculate, but he made another change to help compensate for poor location. His release point dropped about four inches while keeping the pitch movement consistent. These factors combined to flatten the attack angle significantly, which will help the pitch play at the top of the zone as well as make up for some mistakes. Fangraphs Stuff+ number jumped from 83 in 2023 to 91 on Wednesday. The pitch returned 5 whiffs on 51 pitches and 16 swings. He also got a ton of called strikes with his four-seamer by dotting the lower corner after setting it up with backdoor changeups. I’ll show what that looks like in a little bit.
Giolito’s best pitch has always been his changeup. That was the other pitch he used frequently in his season debut and it was incredibly effective for him. Giolito’s changeup is very unique in terms of movement. Most changeups are similar to sinkers. Brayan Bello and Tanner Houck are examples of pitchers where the two shapes blend together. Giolito’s changeup is more like a four-seam; the vertical movement is well above average for a slow ball. The list of pitchers averaging more vertical movement on their fastball is a short one, comprised mostly of pitchers who throw with very over-the-top arm angles.
In his return to the mound, his changeup remained a great offering. He threw the pitch in the zone frequently, a trademark of his, and continued to rack up strikes. He spotted the ball down and away from righties consistently, which is an atypical approach, but worked in the absence of a breaking ball. Let’s look at it in practice for a little more detail.
I’m going to start in the fifth inning, because I really like Giolito’s approach here against Ernie Clement. There are two outs and nobody on base.
Giolito starts Clement off with a slider. It’s outside for ball one, but that’s okay. Clement is the nine-hole hitter, there are two outs, nobody on base, and Giolito has a four-run lead. With the lineup about to turn over, he’s probably trying to find a feel for the pitch so he can feel comfortable using it his third time through the lineup. It’s outside and might not have the movement he’s looking for, so we don’t see it again for the rest of the outing. You’re down 1-0 in the at-bat now, but it’s Ernie Clement, not Barry Bonds.
This is great. At 1-0, Clement is expecting a fastball and is way too early on this changeup. 1-1.
Giolito doubles up on the change and throws this one in the dirt. Clement thinks about it, but is able to hold up for ball two.
At this point, everything Clement has seen is soft. Giolito follows up the two changeups with a fastball down in the zone. Clement, probably expecting more movement, leaves it for strike two. Giolito probably doesn’t want to get to a three-ball count against the nine hitter with two outs, so I’d look for him to attack the zone at 2-2.
Beautiful. Giolito starts a changeup on the outside edge, Clement is still looking for a fastball, and is once again way ahead of it. He gets his bat on it as he lunges, throws his bat, and weakly grounds out to third base. This thing is nasty. Scrub through the video slowly and take a look. It’s 10 MPH slower than his fastball, and when Clement starts his swing, the ball is above his knees. By the time he makes contact, it’s no longer a strike. Really great stuff from Giolito here.
I’m having fun, so let’s do one more at-bat. Andres Gimenez in the fourth inning.
Fastball. Gimenez is taking all the way. Strike one.
Changeup. It starts in the same spot as the fastball but finishes a full foot off the plate. Strike two.
Remember when I just threw 82 MPH? Now it’s 94 at your eyes. Strike three. That’s how you put away an inferior hitter.
If I were looking for how Giolito could improve, I’d look at his slider. He only threw five, which I’d assume is a result of a lack of feel. While it didn’t directly get punished, the inclusion of it in his arsenal could have gone a long way for him in the sixth inning. The two home runs allowed are obviously mistakes, but the at-bat against George Springer is where the lack of a breaking ball stood out to me. Let’s take a look.
In his previous at-bat, Giolito threw Springer three changeups, all down and away. Springer fouled off the first two and then took the third for a called strike. Keep that in mind.
Fastball, down and away for strike one.
Fastball, away again for strike two. At 0-2, Giolito should throw anything but something good to hit. He can afford to waste one with a big lead, and nobody on base.
He tries to elevate a fastball and misses for ball one. No big deal.
This is where that previous at-bat comes to mind. Giolito is trying to throw a fastball on the lower outside corner. Springer, having punched out on a changeup in that spot in his last at-bat, would likely leave this pitch alone if it started at the corner, expecting it to drop out of the zone. I like the idea from Giolito, he just misses his spot.
Now here’s the changeup, again trying to dot that corner but missing outside. Following the miss at 1-2, a slider would have been a great option. Giolito could start the pitch on the outer half, running it away from Springer. Unfortunately, he wasn’t confident in the slider (I assume) and doesn’t want to pitch Springer inside, so he’s forced to try to nibble on the outside edge.
With the count full, Giolito tries to challenge Springer with a fastball, but misses just over the zone. He went on to hang two changeups for two home runs before getting the final out of the inning.
Up until the at-bat against Springer, I was really impressed by Giolito’s ability to navigate the lineup. During that at-bat, he looked like a pitcher with two pitches, which is always glaring the third time through the lineup. After that at-bat, he looked like a pitcher who hadn’t pitched in two years. That’s to be expected, because he hadn’t pitched in two years. Overall, I’m encouraged by the start. As he spends more time on the mound and working between starts, his feel for spin should return. My expectations for Giolito weren’t high, but he raised the bar immediately.