Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has declined his end of a $19MM mutual option, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He’ll be paid a $1.5MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a new opportunity. The Red Sox will have the right to make him a $22.025MM qualifying offer, as Giolito has not previously received a QO in his career.
Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox on the heels of a disappointing platform with the White Sox. He’d posted excellent results from 2019-21 and cemented himself as one of the sport’s most durable starters before logging back-to-back ERAs near 5.00 in 2022-23. Giolito, 32 next July, had hoped to bounce back in Boston and take an opt-out in his contract last offseason.
Instead, the clock struck midnight on the durable right-hander’s arm. He tore the UCL in his pitching elbow during spring training 2024 and didn’t pitch a single inning inning that year. Giolito naturally forwent the opt-out in his contract and returned to Boston for the 2025 season. He stumbled out of the gate, struggling so badly that for a few starts it looked like his entire two-year contract would go down as a bust. By early June, he had an ERA north of 6.00 through seven starts.
Giolito rebounded in terrific fashion, however. Beginning with six shutout innings against the Rays on June 10, he took off on an extended hot streak. From June 10 through season’s end, Giolito posted a 2.51 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. His 20.3% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate in that stretch were both worse than average, and his .244 average on balls in play showed plenty of good fortune. Even with some expected regression in his ERA, Giolito looked like a solid mid-rotation starter who’d take a place in Boston’s postseason rotation — at least until the next roadblock arose.
On Sept. 29, manager Alex Cora announced that Giolito was dealing with an elbow issue and would not be on the team’s roster in the Wild Card round of postseason play. The next day, the team indicated that Giolito was unlikely to return at all in 2025, regardless of how deep the Sox advanced in the postseason field. While his surgically repaired UCL was intact, the veteran righty was hobbled by flexor irritation and a bone issue in his elbow.
The Sox had a $14MM club option on Giolito for the 2026 season that they might still have exercised even after the elbow troubles, but when he completed his 140th frame of the season — Giolito totaled 145 innings overall — that option vested instead as a $19MM mutual option. Players tend to make the first call with regard to mutual options, and Giolito is seemingly confident enough in his health that he’ll turn down a net $17.5MM to once again test free agency.
His decision to decline the mutual option also forces the Red Sox into a decision on whether to issue a qualifying offer. They exceeded the luxury tax line in 2025, so they’d only net a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft if Giolito declined and signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation, coupled with more elbow troubles for Giolito, might be enough for the Sox to forgo extending a QO in the first place. If they do, however, Giolito will again have a decision to make — this time on a sum that clocks in a bit over $3MM north of his prior option price. Add in the buyout he’s owed for declining, and a QO could at least net him $4.525MM over the value of the option he declined today.
With Giolito headed toward the market — or at least somewhat up in the air — the Sox project for a rotation including Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and a handful of question marks. Top prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early impressed late in the season but only have a handful of MLB starts between them. Kutter Crawford missed the entire season due to knee and wrist injuries (the latter of which required surgery). Patrick Sandoval didn’t pitch in 2025 after signing a two-year deal on the heels of his 2024 UCL procedure, but he’ll be in the mix next year. Tanner Houck had Tommy John surgery in August and is likely a nonfactor in 2026.
Given all the uncertainty in the ’pen, the Sox are expected to pursue rotation help this winter. That could include a reunion with Giolito, but there are plenty of options for them to peruse on both the free agent and trade markets.