In choosing Walker Buehler over Richard Fitts, the Red Sox could be making a big mistake

The Red Sox are swapping an arm out of their rotation, but I’m not sure it’s the right one.

On Tuesday, the Red Sox announced they were sending Dick Fitts down to Worcester as part of a trio of roster moves.

The transaction was not only surprising, but raised more questions than answers. The first of which being: What the hell?

Fitts has a 3.31 career ERA in 12 major league starts, and if you remove that one dreadful outing against the Angels in which he allowed five earned runs in just one inning of work, the ERA becomes 2.53 in the other 11 starts. The only reason there’s not more fanfare around his production is because the club (almost unbelievably) managed to lose each of his first ten career starts. But carve out his individual work, and he’s been a fine and useful bottom piece in the rotation when given the ball, and as our own Jacob Roy pointed out on Tuesday, he’s also getting better.

This alone makes a demotion puzzling, but when you juxtapose it with Walker Buehler seemingly starting his own space orbit company next to him in the rotation, it raises even more eyebrows.

Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

The catalyst for the question marks is Hunter Dobbins being on the verge of returning to the rotation. He made a rehab outing back on July 5th for Portland and struck out eight without walking anybody while throwing 62 pitches in five strong innings work. He’s ready!

If he keeps a typical five day plan, Dobbins can start his next game today, Thursday, July 10th — And wouldn’t you know it? It’s the same day Walker Buehler’s turn is coming up in the rotation as the Sox get set to open an important four game set against the Rays, whom they trail by just 1.5 games in the Wild Card race.

Is it just me, or is it painfully obvious what SHOULD have happened here? Walker Buehler has a 9.29 ERA in his last seven starts, his offspeed pitches have been missing to zone to the point they’re uncompetitive, and consequently, his fastball has been more hittable than a plump pinata. Even in his last outing where he “looked better,” there was nothing there that inspired confidence. He allowed eight hits in five innings while only striking out two against a very unimpressive Nationals lineup. The biggest reason that game wasn’t a stress inducer is because the Red Sox offense put nine runs on the board in the first three innings.

So the idea of giving Buehler yet another chance to find his footing against a team the Sox are directly battling with in the playoff race while Fitts wastes the weekend is Worcester is, to put it mildly, very disappointing.

Before we dive into the particulars, let’s look at how the last four games going into the All-Star break would have lined up for the rotation if there wasn’t any roster movement:

• Thursday, July 10th vs. Rays: Walker Buehler
• Friday, July 11th vs. Rays: Garrett Crochet
• Saturday, July 12th vs. Rays: Dick Fitts
• Sunday, July 13th vs. Rays: Brayan Bello

But now with Fitts out and Dobbins entering the fold sometime this weekend, an uncertain wrinkle is added. Do the Sox push Crochet back a day to give him an extra 24 hours of rest since they’ve been riding him pretty hard of late? Do they squeeze Dobbins into the Friday game with Campbell throwing two innings last night and the bullpen well rested? Or are they just knowingly preparing for another Walker Buehler blow-up by bringing in the extra arm between Fitts being sent down and Dobbins being called up? If they are, shame on them for giving Buehler the ball!

Either way, I find Buehler’s presence here extremely irksome. The Red Sox enter this series on a six game winning streak and they have a chance to do some real damage if they send their best arms to the mound. Not only could they pass the Rays in the standings with a series win, but they’re also already 4-2 against them on the season, so this series could swing the tiebreaker depending on how it plays out. (Take three of four against the Rays and the Sox officially lock it up. Lose three of four and the teams are 5-5 on the season with just one head-to-head series left in Florida in September.) It should be a higher priority to win these games now than you’d usually set for a July series!

Meanwhile, the Rays are in a stretch where they have to play 16 of 19 games on the road (after hurricane Milton ripped the roof off of Tropicana field, forcing the Rays outdoors, MLB intentionally loaded their schedule with more road games in the summer to avoid the Florida rain and heat). They’ve also lost seven of their last ten games going into the series.

Doesn’t this seem like the most vulnerable the Rays are going to be all season? Why throw them a life raft in Walker Buehler? Attack them with your best arms now!

As far as I’m concerned, this qualifies as one of those rare moments in a 162-game season where you show a little bit of extra urgency and try to inflict damage. There’s a winning streak on the line, there’s an opponent you need to beat with tiebreakers hanging in the balance, and there’s the All-Star break waiting after the series for rest and recovery. In my eyes, the four starters for this series should have been Dobbins on Thursday, Crochet on Friday, Fitts on Saturday, and Bello on Sunday.

Instead, we’re going to get more Walker Buehler, and if he goes out there and stinks up the joint again, the second guessing will rightfully be as loud as the leash they gave him is long.