No math, just gut.
I’ve stuck with my Opening Day guess of 87 wins in the April, May, and June wrap-ups and, as of today, the Red Sox have a .541 winning percentage. And you you what that is over 162 games? 87.6 wins. Not showing off, not falling behind. Right in that meaty part of the prediction curve.
In my June wrap-up I was ready for a run of success:
I’m writing this assuming they win on Monday, but the math is similar. They’re 42-44 with 76 games left. I’ll put them down for one more win in the Reds series. Then sweep the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies. They’re 49-45 and have 68 games remaining. They need 38 wins. That’s a .558 pace or 38-30. I’m not giving up on 87 yet.
Fortunately for me after doing exactly that and almost walking away from a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds too, the Red Sox are sitting at 53-45 with 64 games remaining. They need just 34 wins to hit 87. That’s only a .531 pace.
One (minor?) qualifier: 87 wins might not get them into the playoffs. But playoffs was gravy in my prediction. There’s tough stuff coming up fast. Let’s see how they do and have something of a running tally. I’m not projecting .531 or something, just going with series by series feelings. You want the opposite of a model? Well since I do that at my day job you’re getting picks influenced lightly by data (I’m looking at the opponent’s record etc.) but believe: me no math is being done other than adding wins and losses.
@ Chicago Cubs: 2-1
@ Philadelphia Phillies: 1-2
Los Angeles Dodgers: 2-1
@ Minnesota Twins: 2-1
Record at the end of July: 60-50
Houston Astros: 2-1
Kansas City Royals: 3-0
@ San Diego Padres: 1-2
@ Houston: 0-3
Miami Marlins 3-0
Baltimore Orioles 2-0 (this is a two-game series)
@ New York Yankees: 1-2
@ Baltimore Orioles: 2-2
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-1
Record at the end of August: 76-62
Cleveland Guardians: 2-1
@ Arizona Diamondbacks: 0-3
@ Oakland Athletics: 2-1
New York Yankees: 2-1
Oakland Athletics: 2-1
@ Tampa Bay Rays: 2-1
@ Toronto Blue Jays: 1-2
Detroit Tigers: 3-0
Record at the end of September: 90-72
Ok, so we’ve got a couple sweeps (I think that Tigers series as the last of the year when the Tigers probably have their playoff spot secured isn’t actually as crazy to pick as it seems), some winning streaks and losing streaks built in (ie. 1-2 and 2-2 could be L-L-W-W-W-L-L or W-L-L-L-L-W-W etc.)
I think the Cubs series could actually get off to a good start for the back of of July just because the rotation will feature the heavy hitters – even if the Cubs will be sending some too. And in terms of the trade deadline, this is really not factoring in adding someone to the 11-1 Red Sox of July but to make something like those Sox more believable. Like, say, allowing for less of Walker Buehler (or he can find a new gear, like Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello did.)
If I was close but the Sox were at home, the error was in their favor to flip a series. The Diamondbacks probably don’t sweep the Sox but it does feel like they’re hit someone on all cylinders.
If this team continues to stay red hot, well, I’m gonna look silly. They do perhaps have a lot of work ahead of them:
MLB Remaining Strength of Schedule
But individually there is room to run especially if some of these teams become sellers and the Red Sox are buyers.
Is this too optimistic? Probably! Can the Sox approach 90? You know, I (still) think they can.