How Lucas Giolito found his footing

The veteran put it together against the Orioles.

Heading into the second game of the Red Sox doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles, Lucas Giolito’s ERA was a touch above seven. Given his performance in 2023 and lengthy absence, it’d be easy to label the righty as damaged goods. Before the game, I surmised that Giolito was much better than his stats.

Giolito took the mound on Saturday and put in a performance that validated my nautical ramblings, throwing seven shutout innings. He allowed six hits, two walks, and struck out six on 99 pitches. Here’s a look at the outing visually.

Look at the fastball command against left-handed hitters. Everything is at the top of the zone, and at 93 MPH with seven feet of extension, that location is going to play. He got five whiffs on 37 pitches (13% swinging strike rate), along with several foul balls and called strikes. His slider was a bit erratic, often leaking above the zone, but it limited hard contact and was thrown for strikes. His changeup didn’t have the best day with only two whiffs; fortunately, his fastball and slider were able to carry the load. The slowball is his bread and butter, so I’d bet it shows up again in his next outing. Let’s take a look at how it looked in action, starting with the first inning.

Giolito started the game by walking Gunnar Henderson. There’s nothing interesting there, so we’ll skip it. Here’s Adley Rutschman.

Giolito starts with a fastball and misses up and away. 1-0.

At 1-0, Giolito throws a slider that’s well placed. Rutschman is out in front and fouls it down the line to even the count.

Here’s a changeup that lands in the zone for strike two. Rutschman kinda flinches at it, which tells me he was expecting another slider. With two strikes, I’d probably go back to the changeup following the take, but Giolito can throw whatever he’s most confident in.

Great pitch. 83 MPH down and away, and Rutschman is way out in front. Part of what makes Giolito so effective is his ability to throw three different speeds. When a hitter isn’t expecting the pitch they get, the velocity differential makes it very difficult to take an emergency swing to foul the ball off. His changeup comes in 10 MPH slower than his fastball, with the slider in between. Brayan Bello should figure that one out.

Jumping ahead, here’s an at-bat against a righty. It’s Maverick Handley (awesome name) in the third inning.

Slider, fouled off for strike one. It’s probably higher than he wanted it, but it’s off the plate enough where it’s hard to punish.

Giolito goes to the changeup and locates well at the bottom of the zone. Handley gets a bat on it, but can only foul it off for strike two.

Another slider, but too far off the plate to entice a swing. I’d go back to it at 1-2.

He does, but it’s still too low. After two sliders didn’t get the job done, I’d go to something else, probably a high fastball.

This is a meatball, but it works because Handley is looking for an off-speed pitch. Because Giolito didn’t throw a fastball in the meeting, Handley probably doesn’t expect to get one. Connor Wong sets up on the outside edge, likely trying to get Handley to lay off what he thinks is another slider, only for the ball to stay straight and clip the edge for strike three. Giolito misses the spot and leaves it right down the middle, and Handley can’t do anything because he’s waiting for spin. Nice work.

Saturday was Giolito’s best outing of the season. He had all three pitches working at times, allowing him to sequence without being one-dimensional. If the slider is here to stay, and it seems like he trusts the pitch, he should continue to perform. He’s always been prone to home runs, and he likely won’t entirely cut out the mistake pitches. That’s just who he is. At the same time, his repertoire as currently constructed should set him up for a solid summer. I’m not saying get your Cy Young bets in, but I don’t think you need to groan when you see its his turn in the rotation.