And his contract could look like a bargain soon if the improvements in his 2025 plate skills stick around.
At the end of the 2023 season, during a second consecutive late-season swoon with a confusing trade deadline, fans looked to the minor leagues for some hope. At that time, the “Big Three” were Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel, who were all at least a year away. Wilyer Abreu, part of the return in the Christian Vazquez deal, came up on August 22nd and was a pleasant surprise down the stretch. However, the prospect that many of us couldn’t wait to see was Ceddanne Rafaela, a primary center fielder who could also contribute defensively all over the diamond.
He got the call a week after Abreu and got his feet wet with 83 unremarkable at-bats in the final month, but he showed flashes defensively. We saw the potential for another 70-to-80-grade center fielder patrolling the outfield at Fenway, to make the catches that the likes of Coco Crisp and Jackie Bradley had done earlier in the century. Still maintaining his rookie eligibility entering the 2024 season, Rafaela would have been under team control for six seasons: three pre-arb, followed by three arbitration seasons. Following the lead of teams like the Atlanta Braves, Craig Breslow made the decision to buy out those arbitration seasons and add two additional years. The 8-year, $50-million contract ensured the Red Sox would have Rafaela through his age-29 season (2030), and included a club option for his age-30 season (2031). Per Spotrac, here is how the deal breaks down by year:
Spotrac
To me, the deal has always felt low-risk. In the “worst case” scenario where Rafaela simply couldn’t hit at the major league level, the Red Sox would have a phenomenal center fielder with the versatility to play adequate defense at both middle infield positions. There is value in that alone, even if it was a twice-a-week starter while coming in as a defensive replacement late in games. Think Kevin Kiermaier, who was rarely a league-average hitter but won four gold gloves and stayed in the league for 12 years. At $50-million over 8 years, an average of $6.25M-per, this was never going to hamstring the roster-building abilities like, say, signing Walker Buehler, or Lucas Giolito, or Masataka Yoshida, or Trevor Story, or … sorry, I’m going off on a tangent.
But was there upside to the Rafaela deal? If a win is worth at least $8-million, could Rafaela improve at the plate enough to make himself a 3-WAR player to blow the value of this contract out of the water?
In the Rafaela Year In Review that I wrote back in November, the One Big Question was “Can Rafaela lay off the breaking balls down and away?” and I mentioned that could be the difference in him becoming an everyday player or not. We’re talking about a player who did not draw a single walk in the final seven weeks of the season as he chased balls out of the zone when behind in the count, time and time again. Some of it looked silly.
https://x.com/redsoxstats/status/1834044654209101884
This season, Rafaela has made clear strides at the plate. Since May 28th, Rafaela’s stat line on the surface has been outstanding. He’s slashing .308/.345/.567, with six doubles, seven home runs, and 14 RBI, good for a 151 wRC+ and a shocking 1.6 fWAR. Only 14 players in all of baseball have a higher WAR than Rafaela over those past five weeks, and his 2.3 fWAR on the season as a whole is 39th in MLB.
A key to that success is how he has improved on pitches out of the zone. It will probably never be great, but it is no longer dreadful. Comparing 2024 to 2025, Rafaela has improved his Swing% on pitches down and away from 46% to 39%. On pitches up and away, he’s improved from a 39% swing rate to 29%. As a result of the improvements in laying off of these pitches, there has been a decrease in the frequency with which pitchers throw him that far outside in 2025.
Baseball Savant
On pitches up and away, Rafaela has improved so much that his BB% actually shows as “red” at this point.
Baseball Savant
Beneath the surface of the good-looking stat line, Rafaela’s Expected wOBA has gone off the charts this year as well. xwOBA is a Statcast measure that utilizes exit velocity, launch angle, and (sometimes) Sprint Speed. Looking at a rolling graph of his three-year career, we see extended stretches where he has exceeded a league-average bat for most of the 2025 season.
Baseball Savant
And when it comes to breaking balls, Rafaela has thrived against the pitch, both with his Batting Average and Slugging numbers, as well as those nerdy “expected” stats.
Baseball Savant
Of course, we all know the value that Rafaela provides defensively. Rafaela’s +13 Outs Above Average leads all outfielders in the league (although the Athletics’ Denzel Clarke is closing fast with +12 OAA, remarkably, in just 34 games so far). Rafaela’s outstanding catch on Sunday has become commonplace, complete with Dave O’Brien calling it a “dandy” and really leaning into this week’s theme by speaking like it’s 1975 again.
Rafaela has improved his stolen base efficiency this year as well, having gone 19-for-29 (66%) a year ago, and is currently 11-for-12 in 2025 (92%). That, combined with a strikeout rate that has been cut from 26.4% to 20.0%, suggests that Rafaela is making improvements across the board this season.
It’s important to remember that Rafaela is just 24 years old and in his second full year in the big leagues, as we should with the rest of the young guys. As 23-year-old Kristian Campbell is sent to the minors to get his confidence back at the plate and learn first base to add to his skillset. As Roman Anthony hit .114 in his first 15 games in the major leagues before heating up over the past week. As Marcelo Mayer has an OBP of .267 and a 31% K-rate in his first 29 games of his career. All of these players can, and probably will, find their stride over the next year or two, but patience will be needed.
For Rafaela, it remains to be seen if this is just a hot month at the plate or if the changes we are seeing will stick for the rest of the season. If they do, the duration of his eight (or nine) year deal will be a bargain. In the offseason piece, I concluded:
With Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu already in town, and number one overall prospect Roman Anthony knocking down the door, it’s feasible that one of these players is traded in the next few months, Rafaela included.
I was way off with who might get shipped out — but at least Rafaela is still here and playing great.