Can he keep it going?
About a month ago, I wrote about the addition of a cutter to Brayan Bello’s arsenal. Since that outing against the Yankees, Bello has a 2.51 ERA over five appearances for the Red Sox. He’s gone at least six innings in each of them, besides his five-inning “complete game” in the resumption of a suspended game. He struck out about 19% of hitters over that span, which is around his career rate. More importantly, he only walked 4.6%, an elite rate.
A lot has been made of Bello’s cutter as the impetus for his breakout. It’s true, the game against the Yankees in which he threw 38% cutters was his best outing of the season to that point. His season actually started to turn around a few weeks earlier, though. Against Milwaukee on May 28th, he got through 4.2 innings and allowed one earned run on 77 pitches. He was removed after an error put him in a jam, with Hunter Dobbins scheduled to piggyback off Bello. That was the last time a Bello outing lasted fewer than six innings, aside from the relief appearance against Cincinnati.
So what changed? After his start against the Braves, Bello slightly altered his mechanics. Here’s a pitch from May 18th against Atlanta.
And here’s one from May 23rd against Baltimore.
As you can see, Bello eliminated the windup. He’s no longer taking a step towards first base and rotating before delivering the pitch. He’s going straight to the plate with no unnecessary motion.
In his first six starts of the year, Bello’s walk rate was 13.2%, his strike rate 57%. Since ditching the windup and pitching exclusively from the stretch, his walk rate is 6.1%, his strike rate 64%. His game isn’t predicated on striking hitters out, but rather enticing them to swing at pitches they can’t punish. By attacking the zone, Bello can keep hitters defensive, induce weak contact, and get deep into games. The new mechanics have seemingly allowed him to locate more effectively, and the results have come in turn.
For much of Bello’s career, it felt like he was “throwing”, rather than “pitching”. Lately, that hasn’t been the case. He’s been using his pitches with clear intention, hitting his spots, and getting deep into games. Most recently against the Tampa Bay Rays, he threw 6.1 innings and allowed one run on six hits and five strikeouts. Here’s a look at a few at-bats from Sunday’s start.
We’ll start with Jonathan Aranda in the first inning.
Bello starts with a sweeper that misses away.
At 1-0, Bello goes to a four-seam, located at the top of the zone. Aranda fouls it off for 1-1.
He goes back to the same pitch, but this one is a bit too high to make the count 2-1. Against a good hitter like Aranda, I’d avoid tripling up.
Here’s a really well-located changeup that Aranda fouls off to even the count at 2-2. Great pitch, and one that Bello was missing for the first part of the year. With two strikes, Bello can go back to something hard, or double up on the changeup, but throw it further off the plate.
This is fantastic. Earlier in the count, Bello threw two fastballs up and in. When Aranda sees velocity, he might think it’s the same page trying to tie him up. Instead, it’s the sinker, and it comes back to clip the inside corner for strike three.
We’ll go to the next hitter, Yandy Diaz.
Bello starts with a sinker inside. He misses, but it’s a fine miss. If Diaz hits this, he’ll have a very hard time keeping it fair. He takes, and it’s 1-0.
Here’s a cutter that clips the top of the zone. This works because hitters see high velocity and expect it to stay up, but the movement drops it enough at the end to get a called strike. Well done.
He tries to go back inside with a sinker, but yanks it a little bit. 2-1.
Third time’s the charm. He goes inside with the sinker again, and it gets in on Diaz, who shoots it to left field lazily for Roman Anthony.
Let’s do one more. Here’s Ha-Seong Kim in the third inning.
It’s hard to throw a much better first pitch than this. Nobody is looking for a low and away cutter at 0-0. If they are, the most they can do with this one is flip it to right field for a base hit. If they can, tip your cap and move on.
Bello follows up a cutter with a sinker for a called strike. He wants it more on the inside part of the plate and misses slightly, but still hits the zone for a called strike. Just like that, it’s 0-2, and Kim is on his heels.
Bello goes to his sweeper at 0-2. Based on the swing, Kim thinks it’s a cutter that will end up middle, but instead it’s much slower and runs further off the plate. Props to him for getting a bat on it, but it’s right to Roman Anthony for the out. While it’s not the best pitch in terms of location by Bello, being ahead 0-2 caused Kim to be on the defensive and feel the need to fight. He recognized the pitch incorrectly, and Bello got the out as a result.
Overall, Bello feels much more in control of at-bats. He’s fighting the hitters rather than himself. He’s always had the stuff to get outs at the big league level, but never found the consistency. Since ditching the windup and pitching out of the stretch, he’s throwing more strikes, executing a game plan, and reaping the rewards. He’ll pitch on Saturday against the Cubs. Let’s hope he can keep it rolling.