But the pieces are there.
You know that bit in cartoons where someone plugs a hole, and another hole springs up? Like in Ice Age: The Meltdown, when Scrat is in the midst of his never-ending pursuit of an acorn? That’s kind of how I feel when I watch Brayan Bello pitch. Every time one issue is solved, a new one pops up. While all the pieces are there, they never seem to all be present at the same time.
On Tuesday night, Bello threw 4.2 innings for the Red Sox against the Detroit Tigers, surrendering three runs and striking out four. I’m not at all concerned with Bello’s performance against right-handed hitters. Here’s a look at the pitch plot.
The pitch separation and approach are fairly clear. Sinkers inside, four-seamers up, and sliders away. Bello opted for the four-seam as his primary pitch against righties, which I have mixed feelings about. Bello throws his four-seam hard, the shape is exceptional, and he’s consistently thrown it to the top of the zone. Those are all characteristics of a quality pitch. Against righties, though, the four-seam won’t lead to as many quick outs as the sinker. Bello’s sinker, with its high velocity and horizontal movement, can break bats and induce weak contact when it’s located inside. Later in counts, I like the four-seam as an option, but with Bello’s current strike-throwing ability, I’d prefer he throws more sinkers to limit the pitch count.
Overall, Bello’s performance against righties on Tuesday was solid. He gave up a home run on a mistake pitch to Spencer Torkelson, but that was the only hard contact allowed. My one critique is his slider command. Too many pitches were non-competitive, leading to just two whiffs on 18 pitches. His stuff alone is good enough to suppress right-handed damage, but better slider command would help Bello limit his workload.
Against lefties was another story. Here’s a look at his pitch selection and location.
While there was a clear approach against righties, the pitch plot against lefties looks like a Jackson Pollock painting. Aside from the changeup, each pitch found every part of the zone. The changeup, while spotted to the arm side, was often too far off the plate and didn’t induce a single swing and miss. Bello consistently fell behind lefties and it never felt like he was in control of at-bats. He needs to command something to set up his changeup down and away, and that wasn’t there tonight. How about we look at an at-bat or two to see what’s going on. Here’s Jace Jung in the second inning.
Bello starts Jung out with a sinker. It’s over the plate, but Jung is taking all the way for a strike.
Bello follows it with a four-seamer that’s not close enough for a swing, but not in a dangerous location either.
At 1-1, Bello goes to a changeup that starts on the edge and tails off the plate. Jung waves at it and ends the inning. This was Bello’s best changeup of the outing, and where he needs to throw it to be effective.
That’s how Bello could look against left-handed hitters. He can survive with sliders for called strikes, fastballs up in the zone, and changeups away. Too often, though, he doesn’t have a feel for one of the pitches, leading to non-competitive offerings and eliminating elements of his approach. That showed up immediately on Tuesday. Here’s the first hitter Bello faced.
You don’t need to see the video to see that several of the pitches weren’t particularly close. He got to two strikes, but couldn’t execute to finish the at-bat. The stuff is there, but the consistency is not.
While Bello’s performance on Tuesday wasn’t spectacular, there was one development that adds a new element to his game. His four-seam fastball averaged 13.1 inches of vertical movement on Tuesday, up about an inch and a half over last season. As a result, the pitch was flatter, which compensates for poor locations. In 2023, Bello’s fastball was crushed when it was left down, causing Bello to abandon the pitch in 2024. Tonight, while his fastball was often over the plate, hitters fouled them off rather than doing any damage. Bello doesn’t want to live belt high with his fastball, but if he can maintain the vertical movement, it can become a more effective strike-getter instead of just a two-strike whiff pitch.
The pieces are there for Brayan Bello to be a successful starter. He has two effective fastballs, an excellent changeup, and a slider that’s shown flashes. Today, the four-seam fastball was as good as it’s ever been, but his secondary command wasn’t there. Next week, he might have a feel for his changeup, but it will come with diminished fastball velocity or poor sinker command. If Bello can put the pieces together, he’ll consistently go six and seven innings. If he can’t, he’ll continue to battle through at-bats and chase that proverbial acorn.