The Patriots might be better in 2025, but there’s still a good chance they are not a contender just yet.
Before we start, let me be clear: I love what the New England Patriots did this offseason, both in their free agent signings, and in the draft. I think they are a significantly better team than they were last year.
Let’s try to remember, however, that they have eight total wins in the last two years. Even a big improvement does not necessarily mean they will be in the playoffs in 2025.
Let’s start with the offensive line. It looks like there are going to be four new starters on the line, with at least three of them never having started a game for the Patriots. With the Patriots having arguably the worst line in the league last year, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it does mean that there are a lot of unknowns.
Morgan Moses played admirably for the New York Jets last year, but he’s another year older, so we will see exactly what he has left this year. Will Campbell is a rookie playing at one of the most important positions on the field, and there are some concerns about how his lack of length will hold up against NFL-level competition (I believe that he’ll be good, but it’s certainly not a guarantee).
Then there’s center, where they are going to be either relying on a veteran who is coming off a rough season and was eventually cut (Garrett Bradbury), or a rookie third-round pick who started only one year in college (Jared Wilson). Wilson does have upside, but his lack of experience at what one could argue is the most mentally taxing position on the line makes it hard to imagine he is going to be able to compete right away.
Lastly, there’s left guard, which is going to be one of Cole Strange, Layden Robinson, Wes Schweitzer, or maybe even the aforementioned Wilson. There is a chance that one of them plays well this year, but is anyone willing to take that bet?
Add all of that up, and it’s hard to be confident about the offensive line this year. Even with Drake Maye showing growth at quarterback, the offense as a whole will only be as good as the line allows it to be.
I’m not going to spend as much time on the receivers; I’m simply going to tell you that the Patriots will be depending on a mix of a 31-year-old receiver coming off a torn ACL (Stefon Diggs), a 32-year-old receiver who has never been much more than a depth option (Mack Hollins), a rookie third-round pick (Kyle Williams), a pair of sixth-round picks in their third year (DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte), and a pair of second-year receivers who were downright awful last year (Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker).
Is there reason to feel good about the upside? Absolutely. Is there a world where it’s a dumpster fire similar to last year? Definitely. Maybe the Patriots are going to end up somewhere in the middle — which would be definitive improvement — but only time will tell. No matter what you think about the receiving corps right now, there can be no doubting that the group as a whole is a big question mark (and that is not even going into the fact that position coach Todd Downing has never been a wideouts coach in his career).
Defensively, I would be surprised if the Patriots weren’t in the top 15 defenses in the NFL, and I believe that they have a better chance of being top 10 than being outside of the top 15. The issue is that, even with a good defense, your team isn’t making the playoffs without an above-average offense. The questions on offense make that far from a sure thing.
All that being said, I’m not here to tell you that you shouldn’t be excited for the 2025 season, because there is a ton of upside on this roster. I’m also not here to tell you that Drake Maye won’t make the famous second-year jump, because he has a very good chance to do and become a difference-maker at quarterback after all.
What I am telling you, however, is to pump the brakes a bit.
Patriots fans have had high hopes recently and gotten their hearts ripped out over and over. Lowering expectations of “everything is going to be great” and “the Patriots will be a contender in 2025” might therefore not be the worst thing; it won’t hurt as badly if there are growing pains and they do not reach whatever lofty goals have been set beforehand.
Then again, fans is short for fanatic, so there one is destined to think great things every year anyway. The good news is that even if there is a chance the Patriots are not as good as fans hope they will be, they appear to have a clear vision now.
At the very least, they are going to be a lot more fun to watch than they were the last two years.