If the season ended today, the New England Patriots would have the No. 3 overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft. But what are the odds that they manage to finish the season with the No. 1 overall pick?
ESPN sports analytics writer Seth Walder tallied up the percentages for the Patriots, Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals in landing the top pick in the draft.
The Bears, who still own the Carolina Panthers’ first-round draft pick, are currently the runaway favorites to come away with the top pick, while the Cardinals come in at a distant second and Patriots at a far more distant third.
The race for the No. 1 overall pick pic.twitter.com/uD2hc6uGNi
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 27, 2023
It’s a bit surprising to see the Patriots have such low odds considering their strength of schedule the rest of the way. They still have games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets left on their regular season slate.
An argument could be made that the Jets game is the most winnable one left on the Patriots’ schedule, but there’s a possibility Aaron Rodgers could be back in at quarterback for Gang Green by the time that matchup comes around.
There is still plenty of losing left for a Patriots team that could find itself in prime position to draft one of the top-two quarterbacks, Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, in 2024.