The New England Patriots are preparing for their biggest game of the season. They host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in a “tee shirt and hat game”, meaning they can clinch the AFC East title with a win. They beat Buffalo in Week 5, so Josh Allen and company will be looking to even the season series. What can the Patriots do to prevent that?
Patriots Keys to Success Vs the Bills
Establishing the Run Game
One aspect of New England’s offense that Buffalo has not experienced firsthand is TreVeyon Henderson. In their previous matchup, Henderson had six carries and two receptions for nine total yards. Since then, his role within the offense has expanded. In the Patriots’ last game against the Giants, Henderson had 11 carries for 67 yards.
As of Wednesday, December 10, the weather forecast in Foxborough predicts the temperature to hover around 30 degrees. Running the football becomes vastly more important this time of year, especially with the potential of snow.
Buffalo’s defense has had issues against the run this year. Per NFL.com, they are currently ranked 28th in the league in rush yards allowed. The Patriots will need to feature both Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson this weekend to wear down the Bills’ defense and keep Josh Allen off the field.
The issue the Patriots will have to overcome in order to successfully run the football is the health of their offensive line. We know that the rookie left tackle, Will Campbell, will miss this game, as he has been placed on the injured reserve list. Jared Wilson may be healthy enough to retake his spot as the starting left guard. He has been a participant in practice this week and is listed as questionable for Sunday.
The Patriots only totaled 59 yards of rushing yards from their running backs in the Week 5 game against Buffalo. They need to control the time of possession battle because getting into a shootout against Josh Allen is a recipe for disaster.
Scoring in the Redzone
The Patriots will need to score touchdowns when they get into the red zone. Over the last three games, the Patriots have only scored touchdowns on 33% of their drives that get inside the 20-yard line. You will not beat Josh Allen and the Bills if you can’t score touchdowns.
Jared Wilson is questionable to return on Sunday, and if he is healthy enough to suit up, that could be a major boost in short-yardage situations. Another guy who has been out with an injury over the past few weeks is Khryis Tonga. The 335-pound defensive tackle has carved out a role for himself as a blocking fullback this season. Having him back could be a huge addition, especially down by the goal line.
One player who should be more involved in the red zone is Mack Hollins. At 6’4″, he is a big target with strong hands who can go up and win a 50/50 ball. Stefon Diggs was a huge factor in the previous matchup with Buffalo, and I would expect the Bills to put an emphasis on limiting his production this time around. That could allow a guy like Hollins to get more involved in the passing game.
Limiting James Cook
James Cook has been the guy who makes Buffalo’s offense work. As great as Josh Allen is, Cook’s production is a huge determining factor in the Bills’ success on the scoreboard. In their nine wins this year, he averages 111.44 yards a game. In the Bills’ four losses, he averages 76.25.
Cook has one weakness that the Patriots can take advantage of. He currently leads the league in fumbles with six, four of which have come in the last two weeks. The defense needs to try to win the turnover battle, and James Cook will give them an opportunity to do so.
Areas of Concern
Expect the Bills to build a defensive game plan centered around what beat them in Week 5. The two biggest factors in that game were turnovers and Drake Maye being lethal outside the pocket. The Bills blitzed Maye a lot in the second half of the first game, but he was able to get out of the pocket and take advantage of the man coverage. Maye was especially great when he was flushed out to the right of the pocket. Expect the Bills’ pass rush to set the edge and force Maye to beat them from the pocket.
Another undervalued factor going into this game will be the weather. We know it’s going to be cold, but I’m more concerned about the chance of rain or snow from one of those brutal nor’easter storms. Josh Allen has proven that he can be excellent regardless of the conditions. There is a reason that Bills Mafia refers to him as the “Winter Soldier”.
Maye has not dealt with very much bad weather to this point in his young career. The only time we’ve seen it this year was the first few drives of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The rain in that game seemed to have affected his accuracy. On their first drive, he missed three throws in a row because they were inaccurate. In order to win this game, Maye will need to be his consistently great self that we’ve seen all season, regardless of the weather.
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