Drake Maye Is Now The Heavy Favorite For MVP
Two-Man Race
For the second half of the season, the NFL MVP has largely been a two-man race. Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye had been the two guys leading the charge, while other guys like Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, and others have come and gone. Stafford has had the shortest odds for the majority of the season. Through 16 games, has thrown for 42 touchdowns, 4,448 yards, and only 8 interceptions. Those are MVP-caliber numbers in any year in NFL history. However, Stafford had his worst game of the season on Monday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons. In that game, he threw for 269 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. That performance allowed for Drake Maye to jump Stafford in the odds races, as Maye is now -400 to win the award per DraftKings Sportsbook.
That drastic change in the betting odds was met with some polarizing responses. How could one game have so much impact on a guy who’s led the MVP race for the whole season? Even with the bad game on Monday night, he still has more yards and touchdowns than Drake Maye. I want to be clear, the race is still very much alive, and betting odds are not the deciding factor. The question remains: how could one game have such a swing in the odds?
It’s no secret that voters put more emphasis on nationally televised games. When the whole world is watching, we want to see the MVP look like an MVP. Stafford’s worst game of the season came in the Los Angeles Rams‘ last nationally televised game of their season, where the Rams were 7.5-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons. Recency bias is unavoidable in awards like this, and Stafford was arguably the main reason the Rams lost as heavy favorites with the whole world watching in week 17.
MVP Case For Drake Maye
Drake Maye’s case has a lot to do with context. As we’ve already discussed, Stafford has more yards and touchdowns. Through 16 games, Maye’s thrown for 4,203 yards and 30 touchdowns. Stafford and Maye have both thrown eight interceptions after Stafford’s three-interception game on Monday night. Drake Maye has not had a three-interception game all season. Maye also has the edge in completion percentage (71.7% to 65.2%), yards per attempt (8.9 to 8.0), and rushing statistics (409 yards and 4 TD’s to -2 yards and 0 TD’s). He has led the Patriots to the #2 seed in the AFC while Stafford’s Rams are in third place in his division. One of the biggest knocks to Drake’s case has been the Patriots’ strength of schedule. The Rams are in the toughest division in football, while the Patriots have played the easiest overall schedule in the last 25 years.
The schedule is a real critique, despite it not having to do with Maye’s performance in those games. However, the Rams have played six common opponents with the Patriots. In those games, the Patriots are 6-0, the Rams are 4-2. Drake Maye’s stats for those six games are 1,585 yards, 13 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Matthew Stafford’s stats in those same games are 1,545 yards, 14 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions. Maye also has 259 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in those games compared to Stafford’s -10 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. For all the people claiming that Maye’s season is a result of an easy schedule, the numbers show that he performed better in games against common opponents.
Another factor in this debate would be situational. Matthew Stafford simply has the better team around him. Specifically, his pass catchers are in a tier above Maye’s. Puka Nacua is one of the best receivers in football and will likely be a first-team All-Pro. Stafford’s second option is Davante Adams, who is a future Hall of Fame inductee. Maye’s first option is Stefon Diggs. Diggs, once regarded as one of the elite wide receivers in football, is now 32 years old and one year removed from suffering a season-ending ACL injury.
MVP Case for Matthew Stafford
Stafford has played one of the toughest schedules in the league and has been lights out all year. He had a streak of 28 touchdown passes without throwing an interception. He’s had one of, if not the best, statistical seasons of his career. He’s had two outlier bad games over the span of an MVP-caliber year. He still has the better passing stats than Maye, even after the bad game against Atlanta. He has consistently been the best quarterback this year, and one bad game at the end of the year does not change that.
Another huge factor for Stafford is the narrative. There’s no disputing how incredible he’s been in his career. He’s thrown for 64,257 yards and 419 touchdowns. He’s sixth on the most for most passing yards in league history, and eighth in passing touchdowns. Those are Hall of Fame-worthy numbers. He’s also a Super Bowl champion. The one thing that most Hall of Fame quarterbacks have in common that Stafford does not is an MVP award. It may be the deciding factor for him when it’s all said and done. With or without the award, he is deserving. Sometimes, that’s just not enough. An MVP award to bookend an incredible career would make it nearly impossible to leave him out of the Hall of Fame.
Main Photo: [Vincent Carichietta] – Imagn Images