The 2024 NFL regular season is reaching its ultimate conclusion for the entire league. Some teams are battling for playoff contention, while others have already hit the reset button for 2025. Which teams have the best cases for winning the chase for the first pick in the NFL Draft? Tankathon has the Patriots as the odds-on favorites to clinch the top selection after Week 17. There are a whopping nine teams still technically alive for a top-five selection!
Chase For The First Pick In the NFL Draft: Week 18 Clinching Scenarios
1. New England Patriots (3-13)
SOS: .467
Week 18 Opponent: Home vs. Buffalo Bills
Clinching Scenario: Loss
The Patriots are in the ideal position to clinch the first-overall selection with a loss since they hold the lowest opponents’ SOS. They will face a likely disinterested Bills team that’s locked into the second seed. Buffalo has zero incentive to try other than to humiliate a longtime nemesis.
2. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
SOS: .515
Week 18 Opponent: Home vs. Houston Texans
Clinching Scenario: Loss plus a Patriots victory
Tennessee is in a prime position to solidify a top-two selection in April, provided they lose to arch rival Houston. The only problem? They are wearing Oilers throwbacks at home for an owner whose family has an acrimonious relationship with all things H-town. Perhaps they can solve the issue at the game’s most important position with a loss. With a victory, it will be difficult for them to climb back up the boards. Houston is another team that has little incentive to win with its playoff seed locked in. It’s not the end of the world for a Titans victory to secure a top-five pick if the Browns, Giants, Jaguars, and Panthers all win.
3. Cleveland Browns (3-13)
SOS: .540
Week 18 Opponent: Away @ Baltimore (Saturday)
Clinching Scenario: Loss plus victories by the Patriots and Titans
The franchise that coined the iconic term “Mistake by the Lake” is trifling through another lost season with Myles Garrett trade rumors swirling around the league. Cleveland travels to Baltimore, which has locked in the second seed and could be resting players ahead of the playoffs. This is a brutal but one-sided AFC North rivalry, so it’s not likely that the Browns will win with their litany of issues. The opponent’s strength of schedule does not help Cleveland in the least. Kevin Stefanski’s men need a loss plus victories by the Patriots and Titans to clinch the top selection. Cleveland also needs Jacksonville and Carolina to win to avoid being jumped by those two because of SOS and lock in their current position.
4. New York Giants (4-12)
SOS: .551
Week 18 Opponent: Away @ Philadelphia
Clinching Scenario: Loss plus victories by New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland
The Giants are another team facing a rival with little to play for besides personal accolades. Philadelphia is locked in as the two-seed regardless of what happens on Sunday night. Saquon Barkley, despite his chase for history, will not play along with several starters. New York blew a glorious opportunity to lock up a chance at the first selection last week. Now they play a resting Eagles squad with the potential to drop further down the board with a win. New York needs a loss plus significant help to secure a top-three selection with no easy pathway to the top pick. Their opponents’ SOS is too high to leapfrog the other contenders in the chase for the first pick in the NFL Draft.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
SOS: .474
Week 18 Opponent: Away @ Indianapolis
Clinching Scenario: Loss plus victories by New England, Tennessee, Cleveland, New York Giants
Jacksonville has the second-worst opponents’ SOS, so if they lose and get victories from the top four, they’ll be in a prime position to jump back up the draft board. The Jaguars travel to Indianapolis to face a similarly lifeless Colts team looking to finish the season strong. Mac Jones has kept the Jungle Cats competitive while Trevor Lawrence deals with injury. It’s far more likely they can clinch a top-three selection with a defeat. A victory would mean a precipitous drop down the boards due to the depth of the win-deficient teams below them.
6. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
SOS: .496
Week 18 Opponent: Away @ Atlanta
Clinching Scenario: Loss plus victories by Patriots, Titans, Browns, Giants, Jaguars
Carolina has the best combination of playing a team that desperately needs a win and the opponent’s SOS to make the ascent into the top three. Atlanta and Tampa Bay are in a win-or-go-home duel that kicks off at the same time. The Buccaneers host the Saints, who are slated to pick tenth as the lone five-win team. Bryce Young has looked improved this season after a horrendous rookie campaign. Michael Penix is making his third start of his young career. With a loss, it’s realistic that the Panthers could get into the top three mix, depending on results elsewhere.
7. New York Jets (4-12)
SOS: .500
Week 18 Opponent: Home vs. Miami
Clinching Scenario: Loss plus victories by Patriots, Titans, Browns, Giants, Jaguars, and Panthers
Gotham’s team is the sole remaining franchise in the top ten with a chance for the first pick in the NFL Draft. Along with their SOS and playoff-needy opponent, Gotham has a remotely positive chance. However, for the Jets to secure a top-two pick, things must go remarkably miraculously right. They host a Miami team that may or may not be fighting for their playoff lives. If Cincinnati upsets Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon, Miami has to win and hope for a Denver loss against a slightly disinterested Kansas City. The Steelers have no motivation other than to keep their hated rivals out. The Jets need a loss, and all six teams ahead of them need to win to get to the mountaintop and select their next quarterback failure after Aaron Rodgers. It’s likely that with a Jets loss, they sneak into the top five, depending on other results. A victory would be catastrophic for their chances of remaining in the top ten.
Main Photo: David Butler – USA Today Sports
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