The NFL season is right around the corner, which means it’s time for NFL bettors to start placing money on their favorite odds. Right off the bat, there are several favorable NFL win totals that should be able to pay out at the end of the season. Of course, news changes all the time, and you need to closely follow any and all news updates to maximize your chances of success.
NFL Win Total Bets Most Likely to Pay Off
San Francisco 49ers – UNDER 10.5
The defending NFC champions are tied for the second-highest win projection in the NFL. This is still a talented team, but they are destined for a good amount of regression. San Francisco’s biggest strength was their elite defense, and we all know that defensive performance is highly volatile on a season-to-season basis. This should still be an above-average defense, but it won’t be as historically good as it was last season.
Additionally, the offense will probably take a step back. Kyle Shanahan is an offensive genius, but the pieces are a little lackluster at the moment. Rookie sensation Deebo Samuel suffered a foot injury and might not be ready for the start of the season. Even if he is, he will probably need some time before looking like his old self. The team never replaced Emmanuel Sanders, so the offense is essentially George Kittle and nobody else. Once you also factor in the difficulty of the division, it’s clear that the 49ers have a difficult path to hitting the 10.5 win threshold.
Dallas Cowboys – OVER 9.5
The Dallas Cowboys were the unluckiest team in the league last year. Based on their offensive and defensive efficiency, this team should have won around 11 games a season ago. However, the ball simply didn’t bounce their way in close contests, and that should regress to the mean in 2020. Even if nothing else changed, Dallas would still be a safe bet to win double-digit games.
However, things did change for the Cowboys in a positive way. The team got rid of the conservative Jason Garrett and replaced him with a better head coach in Mike McCarthy. Garrett’s obnoxious commitment to the run game caused several losses, and McCarthy loves to throw the ball around. Additionally, the team had one of the best drafts in the entire NFL, landing CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs with their first two picks. This team should be a lock for at least 11 wins and is some of the easiest money you’ll ever make.
New England Patriots – UNDER 9
It feels weird to bet against the New England Patriots, but 2020 is a weird year. New England went 12-4 last year, but their win total was artificially inflated by playing a hilariously easy schedule. They have to face real teams in 2020, which automatically drops their win total from a season ago. On top of that, it’s hard to think of a team that lost more talent in the offseason than this one.
Cam Newton is a solid quarterback, but he’s still a massive downgrade from Tom Brady. The team didn’t do anything to address their lack of talent on offense aside from adding two tight ends late in the third round of the NFL Draft. Tight ends historically need a season or two before they’re ready to contribute on the NFL stage, so the skill positions are not any better than they were a season ago. Good luck, Cam – you’re gonna need it.
As mentioned in the 49ers blurb, defensive regression is a real thing and the Patriots have a ton coming their way. As it is, their defense was a little overrated last year. From Week 9 onward, the unit ranked 15th in the NFL in EPA allowed per play. Facing harder opponents will bring this defense back to Earth even if the entire group remained intact. However, New England lost a ton of defensive talent throughout the offseason.
The Patriots traded Duron Harmon to Detroit, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, and Dont’a Hightower opted out, and Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, and Elandon Roberts are all gone, most of whom don’t have immediate replacements on the roster. This team screams out 7-9, or 8-8 at best.
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