After the Boston College men’s hockey team took down the #10 UMass Minutemen this weekend in an impressive sweep of a top-10 team, it became clear that the Eagles are the obvious favorite to secure the #1 overall seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament. A lot can happen in just a few weeks, but the series against UMass was the biggest remaining obstacle on the schedule for BC. Since they lost to archrival Boston University in the Beanpot, BC has won four straight games and scored at least five goals in all of those contests, showing that their offense is not going to slow down as we head into the home stretch.
That loss against BU in the Beanpot is their only loss in their last 10 games. Boston College is positioned extremely well in the Pairwise rankings as a result of all of their wins, leading to most calculators to pick them as the heavy favorite to emerge as the #1 team in the country once the NCAA tournament begins. With just five games remaining on the regular season schedule, Eagles fans should be keeping their eyes on two things:
The race for #1 overall
Like I said, BC has the best overall odds to secure the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, which would mean important advantages for their first match-up in the tourney, “home” ice advantage, and their position in the bracket overall. But the #1 seed isn’t completely locked up just yet. College Hockey News’s Pairwise Probability Matrix gives the Eagles an 80% chance to earn the #1 overall seed, while PlayoffStatus.com gives BC an 86 % chance.
Boston College’s biggest rival in the race for #1? Who else but BU.
Boston University, despite their (hilarious) Beanpot loss to Northeastern, still sits comfortably at #2 in the Pairwise and not terribly far behind BC. The Terriers have a few solid games ahead of them against UConn and Providence before the Hockey East tournament begins on March 13th. If BU beats the Huskies and the Friars to close out the regular season and makes a run in the Hockey East tournament, they could really boost their resume and put themselves in a good position to take the #1 seed from BC. But it would also require BC to drop a couple of unexpected games down the stretch.
Our old friend North Dakota also has an outside shot to take the #1 seed if both BC and BU collapse to end the season. But that seems rather unlikely given how well both of these teams have been playing lately.
Could UMass steal home ice advantage?
The other team BC fans want to keep an eye on is UMass. Amherst is hosting an NCAA tournament regional this year, meaning that UMass automatically gets to play there if they make the tourney. If BU overtakes BC as the #1 seed, and UMass slips into the tournament as a #4 seed, that means BC could get sent to a regional in either Maryland Heights, MO or Sioux Falls, SD.
This would happen because BC isn’t allowed to play another Hockey East team in the first round of the tournament, and BU gets priority if they’re #1, so they couldn’t play in the 1v4 match-up at either local site. It’s a disaster scenario for anyone who likes to attend BC hockey games and would want to attend a local NCAA tournament game. The “home” atmosphere for Boston College would be destroyed if the fans had to take a plane ride to Missouri or South Dakota instead of taking a car or bus ride to Springfield or Providence.
This scenario has been at the back of my mind for months now, but BC has been playing so well recently that it seems rather unlikely. They have a solid lead over BU in the Pairwise, while UMass has fallen to #15 after they got swept by BC. The Minutemen would have to climb back up to at least #14 and hope that no surprise conference tournament winners bump them out of their spot in mid-March. It’s still possible that BC could be forced to travel, though, and something that local fans should keep an eye on.