After a restful and productive bye week, the Eagles head back to the state of Virginia for a Thursday night matchup at Lane Stadium against Virginia Tech. As of the time of writing, spread stands at VT -7.5, with the O/U sitting at 49.5. Let’s break it down:
Virginia Tech came into this year returning an enormous amount of production and was a popular dark horse pick to win the ACC. Those expectations were put in check early in the season, as the Hokies suffered an opening loss to Vanderbilt, and now sit at 3-3 on the season. However, they have been playing stronger of late, very nearly upsetting Miami and trouncing an overmatched Stanford squad in their last two contests. Their third loss came against a decent Rutgers squad by three points, so VT’s record may be a bit misleading.
Offensively, QB Kyron Drones is a weapon with his legs and his arm. He’s thrown for 1,155 yards on a 61% completion percentage to go with eight TDs and four interceptions; on the ground, he’s rushed for 278 yards and a further three scores. Virginia Tech looks to get the ball out quickly with screens and the short passing game, especially early in contests. Then, once the defense is keyed into the short passing game, Drones has the arm to take the top off. His favorite weapon is the speedy Jaylin Lane, who’s got 24 receptions for 325 yards on the season; Stephen Gosnell is also a bigger target who averages 18.4 yards per catch. Given BC’s issues with stopping the pass, defensive coordinator Tim Lewis has employed a “bend don’t break” approach by playing lots of zone defense and flooding the secondary with bodies. I fully expect this to continue against the Hokies, especially with the terrible news that CB1 Amari Jackson is done for the year with a torn ACL (we are wishing for his speedy recovery). The problem is that Virginia Tech also features an explosive playmaker in the backfield, RB Bhayshul Tuten. He’s rushed for 605 yards on 107 carries (good for 5.7 yards per rush) and has punched in nine touchdowns already. He’s dangerous, and the combination of Drones and Tuten on the ground will be very difficult for BC to contain.
Defensively, the Hokies feature a strong defensive line headlined by Antwaun Powell-Ryland (seven sacks, two forced fumbles) and Aeneas Peebles (three sacks). These guys are dangerous pass-rushers, but they have only been OK against the rush. On the back end, the two outside cornerbacks are both dangerous in rising star Mansoor Delane (two interceptions, one forced fumble) and veteran Dorian Strong (three pass deflections and another forced fumble). I see a clear gameplan for BC: get the ball out early into playmakers’s hands to prevent the pass rush from getting home, and establish the run game. These two elements have been missing from BC’s offense during the past couple weeks; it seems like every time TC drops back to pass he’s holding onto the ball all day while the rushing game has really struggled too. BC needs to get back to its identity to pull out a win in what’s going to be a loud Lane Stadium.
Picks: VT -7.5, U 49.5