All right, we are back. Since sportsbooks only release lines and O/U’s on the day of the game for FBS vs. FCS tilts, we missed last week (although had BC -36 been available earlier in the week, I would have picked it here). I’m officially off to a better start than last year at 1-0 on the season (as obviously BC spread and the Under both hit against FSU). But there’s no time to celebrate — the Eagles have probably the most daunting test of the season on the road at #6 Missouri on tap.
Mizzou’s ascension under Eli Drinkwitz has been a methodical process, but he is now reaping the rewards. Drinkwitz took over the program prior to the 2020 Covid-abbreviated season, and proceeded to go 17-19 over his first three seasons — hardly inspiring in the “it just means more” SEC. Then came the 2023 season breakthrough. Spearheaded by veteran QB Brady Cook, workhorse RB Cody Schrader, and electric WR Luther Burden, Mizzou posted an 11-2 record (only losing to ranked LSU and Georgia teams) and capping the year with a bowl victory over Ohio State.
Mizzou’s offense this season has been and will continue to be prolific given it returned 79% of its production from last season. Brady Cook is more of a game manager than elite game changer at quarterback, but he is excellent at getting ball out quickly and accurately, minimizing turnovers, and staying ahead of the chains. That play style has worked excellently at Mizzou considering the weapons at his disposal. Luther Burden is probably one of the top 3 wide receivers in the country, and yet through two games he’s third on his own team in yards and receptions. Returning senior Theo Wease Jr. has 16 catches for 179 yards, while Marquis Johnson has 9 receptions for 93 yards with Burden at 7 and 64, respectfully. Though Schrader is no longer with the team, the duo of Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll has combined for 218 yards through two games.
This offense will undoubtedly be the most dangerous offense BC has seen yet this season and could very well be the most dangerous they see all year. BC’s secondary will be hugely tested. How Amari Jackson, Max Tucker, and Co. stand up to the plethora of receivers mentioned above will go a long ways towards deciding this game. Tim Lewis and Ray Brown will have to tread carefully — overcommit to the short passing and running game and all of sudden Burden could break free for a long TD. The defensive line will need to be effective when Cook hangs in the pocket, and will need to watch for improvised scrambles — Cook isn’t the most talented athlete, but we’ve seen BC struggle with mobile QBs in recent years.
Defensively, Mizzou saw a bit more turnover but still saw 59% of its production last year return. The strength of this team is clearly its offense, but with guys like DE Johnny Walker Jr. (5 sacks last year; 1 this season) and CB Dreyden Norwood, they can more than hold their own — they have yet to allow a single point this season after blowing out Murray St. 51-0 and Buffalo 38-0. Now, it must be said that while a shutout is always impressive, Mizzou has not truly been tested yet. There’s a lot of unknowns here that we won’t know until these teams hit the turf on Saturday. Chief in my mind is BC’s rushing attack against Mizzou’s defensive line. Obviously, BC has dominated the line of scrimmage early in this season — will that continue against Mizzou?
In looking at the spread (BC +16.5) and the O/U (54.5), I feel similarly as I did prior to the FSU game. Now, obviously the entire country drastically overestimated FSU, and I have a lot more respect for Mizzou — especially on offense, where they have a system and players in place that have demonstrated huge success before. I think BC approaches this game similarly to FSU — run the ball, control the clock, and keep it close. Tommy Castellanos flashed his arm against Duquesne; I do think he will have to air it out more than he did against FSU just because I don’t envision BC dominating the line of scrimmage as effectively as they did in Florida. But I like BC spread here. The running back room is so deep — we knew about Ward and Robichaux, but Turbo Richard looked excellent after toting the rock 15 times last week and Datrell Jones had a long house call. The offensive line gets a boost with Logan Taylor back, and TC has yet to really get it going on the ground. I do think we see more points this week, though. The Mizzou offense is just too explosive; Burden and Co. will have a splash play at some point. The question is if BC can respond. Ultimately, I think BC fights hard, but Mizzou pulls away late in front of a big home crowd to win the only ranked vs. ranked matchup of the week 38-24.
Picks: BC +16.5, O 54.5