We’re so back
The column you’ve all been waiting for is back! There’s simply nothing better than the return of college football – except making money while watching. Each Wednesday of Game Week, I’ll be previewing the Eagles’ matchup from a betting perspective (specifically the spread and the over/under). If you read this column last year, you’ll know I was far from perfect. That’s changing this year, starting with Florida State.
FSU – fresh off its humiliating exclusion from the CFP after an undefeated regular season – came into this season with something to prove. Head Coach Mike Norvell reloaded through the transfer portal, most notably bringing in ex-Clemson and Oregon St. QB DJ Uiagalelei to run the Seminole offense. Yet, in the first action of the year, with the eyes of the nation upon them, FSU lost on a last-second field goal to Georgia Tech. Not how the revenge season was supposed to start. Luckily for Norvell and the Noles, the advent of the 12-team playoff means that their season is not over in Week 0. They can still make the playoff, but now they have a razor-thin margin for error.
There are a number of things to consider when looking at BC’s chances here. First, the fact that FSU has already played adds an interesting variable to the matchup. BC has a full game’s worth of tape to break down in preparation for crafting a game plan. On the other hand, no one has seen what the Eagles’ offense will look like. O’Brien has said it will be a mix of his previous systems at Penn St., Alabama, the Texans and the Patriots, and we know he’s installed a Pro-Style system. But it has yet to be deployed.
Conversely, FSU has already had a game to work out some of the kinks in its team and hone in on what was effective and what was not. More importantly, they are now 0-1 and will be coming out for blood, especially back at home in a packed Doak Campbell Stadium. When asked about the pros and cons about FSU having already played, O’Brien downplayed its importance and called for his team to remain focused on things within their control.
Georgia Tech upended FSU by running all over their vaunted D-line. Both Jamal Haynes (11 carries for 75 yards and 2 TDs) and Haynes King (15 carries for 54 yards) found success on the ground, especially running to the outside where FSU had a difficult time setting the edge. That bodes well for the Eagles, who obviously feature a QB who offers a greater threat on the ground. The trio of Tommy Castellanos, Kye Robichaux, and Treshaun Ward (making his return to his former school) will need to have big days for the Eagles to have a chance. The revamped Eagles O-line will face a tough test to open rushing lanes for them, but if the Eagles are able to control the tempo of the game and find success on the ground, that will open up options in the passing game. Defensively for the Eagles, their D-line will need to come up big against a potent FSU offense. The Noles struggled at times to move the chains against Georgia Tech, but they feature playmakers in Lawrance Toafili and Roydell Williams at RB and Ja’Khi Douglas and Malik Benson at WR. Uiagalelei has a big arm and is an excellent athlete, but he struggles to consistently push the ball downfield. If Donovan Ezeiruaku and Co. can get into the backfield and pressure DJU, it will ease the burden on the Eagle’s secondary (arguably their biggest question mark heading into the season). Moreover, the close loss to FSU in the Red Bandanna Game last year no doubt still stings for Boston College. I expect O’Brien to have them ready to go.
Time for the picks. Since FSU’s Week 0 loss, the spread has dropped from BC +21 to BC +15.5. I think the Eagles lose by double digits but still cover the spread. FSU clearly has the talent advantage, will have a major home crowd behind them, and will be hungry to get their season back on track. While an Eagle upset is possible, I don’t think it is likely. However, with DJU as the signal-caller, FSU seems to be a bit more methodical on offense (especially without explosive guys such as Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman). Combined with the Eagles’ running game, I think that will limit possessions for both teams and keep FSU from running up the score. I’ll take the under on 50.5 as well.
Picks: BC +15.5, U 50.5