4 wins, 4 losses, 4 games left — just about where most figured we’d be at this point the season. Only, it didn’t exactly pan out the way many expected. Is it our fault we deluded ourselves into believing otherwise after a physical beatdown over Florida State, a narrow loss in Mizzou, and a cathartic near-walk off over Michigan State?
We know the key issues — play calling, punting, and overall team consistency. There’s little to no rhythm in play calling, BC is 120th in the country in net punt yards, and the team can’t put together 60 minutes to save anything. We’ve gone so full circle, we’re missing extra points again.
But today we’re going to look at positives because I think we all need that for our health (and because Curtis wanted some words written).
This is year one of Bill O’Brien with a premade roster and a rather hastily put together coaching staff if we’re being honest. And yet, the coaching impact is clearest in one area — penalties. The Eagles are 12th fewest in penalties per game (4.5) and 9th in fewest penalty yards, total and per game (304, 38). By comparison last year, Hafley’s team finished 94th in penalties per game (6.54) and 78th in yards (717). Although some procedural penalties have cropped up of late, and for some reason Khari Johnson hasn’t fully grasped targeting (sorry), by and large O’Brien and the staff have cleaned things up.
This season would look even worse if the Eagles defense wasn’t producing turnovers at a high rate. Yes we’re giving the ball right back, but again positives. Bend don’t break they say. It can only go so far, but you can’t say we’re not giving ourselves chances to win the game. BC is averaging 2 takeaways per game. That’s good for 13th in the country. In the end, keeping points off the board is the best you can ask a defense to do and the turnovers have kept things afloat. Now the offense needs to capitalize on these opportunities.
This is a very streaky team, but they certainly have resolve. The Eagles are surprisingly 21st in third down conversion (.463). That would’ve been top 20 last season where BC was converting only 41%. It sure doesn’t always feel that way in high leverage situations, but as it turns out that is the college football landscape. Level set expectations. The team has fought back game after game and have made things interesting. Mizzou, Michigan State, WKU, that one quarter against Virginia Tech when hope was lost, and even two prime opportunities to come back last Friday. This team has fight and O’Brien’s establishing the mindset that the game isn’t over.
The market had us at 4.5 wins for the season. FPI now has us rated 58th and SP+ 67th with a projected record of 5.8-6.2 and a 62% chance at 6 wins. Our updated strength of schedule is 35th, avoiding the top of the conference, but also the bottom of the barrel. We’re an average team, but one that can compete.
There are still four games left, two more for bowl eligibility. Let’s get there. Keep supporting, be critical, but we’re here for the long haul. It took years for Frankenstein to build the monster.