The Play-In Tournament starts tonight with the Celtics’ first round opponent being determined first.
By this time tomorrow, we’ll know who Boston will be hosting for Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs on Sunday. And while it might not seem to matter who the 61-win Celtics play in the first round, no series is just a formality.
While a 22-5 record after the All-Star break suggests that the team is peaking at the right time, there are still a handful of question marks heading into the postseason. Jaylen Brown’s troublesome knee and reports of multiple pain management injections are certainly cause for concern. There’s always a feeling of apprehension over the age of Al Horford and the health of Kristaps Porzingis, too. And finally, I’m sure we haven’t heard the last of whether or not the Celtics’ three-point shooting is one of their strengths or a reason for their eventual downfall.
So, who should we be rooting for tonight in the Play-In Tournament?
Basically, my gut tells me that a series with Orlando would be physically difficult but short and a series with Atlanta could go long, but would be more of an exercise in variance more than anything else.
Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
Boston had a losing record against four teams this season — the Oklahoma City Thunder (0-2), the Indiana Pacers (1-2), and yes, the Hawks (1-2) and Magic (1-2). No doubt motivation, timing, and health had something to do in those losses, but it’s not like either team couldn’t take a few games off of the Celtics in the playoffs. Alas, anything is possible.
Here’s CelticsBlog’s Ben Paradis on Orlando’s bruising style: “The Magic are young, hungry, and tough on defense. If the Celtics lose focus the Magic can exploit them.” What scares me about them is that because of a lack of skill (29th in eFG%, 26th in AST/TO rate), they’ve relied heavily on effort and physicality. Led by Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, two wings that invite rough play, they’ll take it to the Celtics because frankly, that’s really the only way they can win.
Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
Atlanta, on the other hand, still has Trae Young, one of the league’s most productive offensive engines. After February 6th when they dealt Bogdan Bogdanovich for Terance Mann and Bones Hyland and De’Andre Hunter for Caris LeVert and Georges Niang, they’ve boasted a 118.9 offensive rating. Sure, they’re susceptible on defense and are without Jalen Johnson, but Dyson Daniels (most likely a First Team All-Defender) and Onyeka Okongwu could cause problems even for an offense as versatile as the Celtics’. Ben again:
“Atlanta is scrappy — and no stranger to making things closer than they should be. The Celtics blew them out in the first meeting without Brown or Porzingis, but the next two games were tight, including a wild NBA Cup loss without Trae Young and an infuriating overtime defeat in January.
The Hawks hang around. They linger even when it seems like they’re done for.”
Back in 2023, a similar Hawks team led by Young won two games and made that opening series a little uncomfortable.
However, the bottom line is that I’d rather get into a chess match, shootout with the Hawks because over seven games, the math will work out in Boston’s favor rather than wrestle in the Orlando Octagon and risk injury to one of our top-6.
Yes, the playoffs are different. Yes, Boston can get down and dirty if they have to. Yes, you can’t play with a fear of injury. Yes, the numbers don’t always add up. And yes, I still think they’ll get out of Round 1 regardless of who they’ll face. I’d just rather come out in one piece.