The Knicks didn’t figure anything special out in Game 1. They just got lucky, and luck tends to run out.
This is probably the only time in my life I will ever say this, so savor it: Colin Cowherd is actually right about something with the Boston Celtics. Well, partially right. On Tuesday, he confidently stated that he’s “never seen a Game 1 upset that means less. This is the only game the Knicks are going to win.”
Now, I won’t go as far as to say the Knicks won’t win another game — they certainly could, because it’s playoff basketball and anything can happen. However, New York didn’t figure anything novel out in the series opener; in fact, luck was actually the most significant factor in their upset. And if their luck runs out, which it often does, we’ll look back on this first game as a complete and utter anomaly that means close to nothing.
Live or die by the three
The Celtics had seemingly quieted the “they shoot too many threes” crowd with last year’s championship, but those people have unsurprisingly come out of the woodworks after a game in which Boston missed 45 threes.
Following a series against the Magic in which their main offensive strategy — volume three-point shooting — was largely taken away (they didn’t shoot more than 37 threes in a game against Orlando), the Celtics got up 60 long balls in Game 1 and they only made 15 of them.
Sure, some of the looks were a bit quick — likely because Boston was excited the three-point line was no longer being guarded like it was actually worth 6 points — but Game 1 was full of high quality shots. Of the 60 threes they took, 56 of them were either open or wide open, and they made a horrid 25% of those (they usually make 38%).
Jrue Holiday summed it up perfectly:
“Lot of shots that felt like we make all the time — lot of wide-open threes, off of offensive rebounds… lot of good shots we wish would have fell. But at the end of the day, we’ve got to keep on shooting.”
The truth is that the Knicks got lucky. They didn’t do anything to effectively take away the three-point line, and Boston got the types of shots they were looking for and have been looking for all year. Sure, the C’s could’ve driven the ball a bit more and gotten into their offense slightly quicker, but New York didn’t find out some sort of defensive strategy that’s going to work against the best offensive team in the league (much like Orlando did with their switching and no-help principles). Instead, they just got bailed out by the Celtics shooting about as poorly as they can.
I won’t bore you with every single good, quality shot that missed, but here are some examples of excellent looks that just didn’t fall.
This is typical Celtics’ offense. Brunson is too small, so NY is forced to bring help, and Boston swings the ball to find a wide open three-point shooter. Can’t run it any better than that — you’re just going to miss sometimes.
Again, the Knicks are in rotation and White gets an awesome look at a three. Boston has to live with those, because they’ll go in at a high enough rate in the long run. Water always finds its level.
One more here. Another attack of too-small Brunson which results in a wonderful look for Derrick.
You can find lots more like these. Monday was littered with quality shots, they just didn’t go in. New York can win another game like this, but it’ll be because Boston misses a bunch of makeable shots, not because the Knicks force them to do something they don’t want to do. The Celtics have the ability to dictate what shots they’re going to get, and that’s how they can level up in game two.
Catch 22 for the Knicks
For large portions of Game 1, the Knicks switched everything. It’s what Orlando did (pretty successfully), so they gave it a shot. The problem is that they don’t have the defensive personnel to do it effectively.
If they’re going to switch Brunson onto the Jays, it’s going to be barbecue chicken. He’s too little to guard them and taking a charge is his only hope. Sure, he might get one or two, but the best wing duo in the league will figure it out. Boston needs to continue to go at this matchup, especially in the post.
They also attacked the KAT switch, but not as effectively. The Jays settled for threes against him rather than using their quickness to drive by him. I think that’ll be the most significant adjustment we see in game two — attacking Towns’ feet on the perimeter.
This is probably a settle, so I would like to see Tatum be a little bit more aggressive. He’s going to get by Towns, which is going to force help, which is going to lead to open threes and driving closeouts, which is going to lead to even more open threes. Celtics basketball.
If the Knicks don’t want to switch, they can go to their base drop coverage against the pick and roll — a coverage that the Celtics completely annihilated in their four regular season matchups. Tatum and Brown attacking KAT downhill in space? Yes, please. No matter what they do, Boston will be getting great looks, and there’s nothing NY can do about it.
Game 2 will be lots of the same for the Celtics. Some small adjustments on the margins — like being more aggressive attacking KAT on switches — will certainly help, but we’re not going to go away from what got us here. And, more likely than not, the Knicks won’t get that lucky again. More threes will fall, I promise.