ESPN Computer Predicts Winner Of Celtics vs. Knicks Game 5

Jayson Tatum on Ruffles (1:53)

The New York Knicks can conclude a surprising second round in the Eastern Conference by eliminating the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night.

Even when the Knicks led 2-0 after two historic comeback wins, many onlookers waited for the Celtics to strike back. However, the tides changed when Jayson Tatum suffered a ruptured Achilles near the end of Monday’s Game 4 loss.

The Knicks now have three chances to end Boston’s title defense and make their first conference finals appearance in 25 years. TD Garden hosts Game 5, which starts at 7 p.m. ET on TNT.

ESPN Analytics reflects how much this series has shifted. In what would have seemed unimaginable a week ago, they give the Knicks a 58.6 percent probability to finish the Celtics with a road win.

However, Vegas disagrees. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, the Celtics are 4.5-point and +160 moneyline favorites to send the series back to Madison Square Garden.

Of course, Tatum’s loss drastically alters Boston’s outlook. The 27-year-old averaged 25.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game this series, scoring 42 points before exiting late in Monday’s 121-113 loss.

Even if the Celtics stay alive Wednesday, they face an uphill battle to make their fourth straight Eastern Conference Finals appearance.

May 1, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) celebrates his three point basket in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Pistons during game six of first round for the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images.

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ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Knicks a 93.2 percent chance of advancing. While Boston’s 1.8 percent probability of reaching the NBA Finals seems minuscule, Celtics fans can take solace in the Mavericks winning Monday’s draft lottery with identical odds.

The Knicks were also poised to win Game 4 even before Tatum got hurt with approximately three minutes remaining.

Jalen Brunson offset Tatum’s stellar performance by registering 39 points and 12 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges each tallied 23 points, and OG Anunoby scored 20 after notching a combined seven points in the previous two games.

Those starters and Josh Hart continue to play big minutes for Tom Thibodeau. As the Knicks suddenly harbor realistic title hopes, Brunson believes the group hasn’t peaked yet.

“I don’t even think we’re playing our best basketball yet,” Brunson said, per ESPN’s Chris Herring. “We have a team that’s still fairly new this year, and we have a long way to go to be the best team we can be. There’s always time to learn for us. We’re never satisfied, and that’s the mentality.”