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The Boston Celtics will go as far as star forward Jayson Tatum takes them.
After lighting up the Brooklyn Nets for 30 points per game in the first round of the NBA playoffs, Tatum has found life much more difficult against the vaunted Milwaukee Bucks defense in the second round. He’s shooting 20-for-57 (35%) through three games and has posted 21, 29 and 10 points.
Most American sportsbooks are dealing Tatum’s Game 4 point prop at O/U 28.5 and I like the “Under.”
You’re still paying a premium on Tatum “Overs” even though he hasn’t shown anything near a breakout game against this long, physical Bucks defense. Tatum also landed awkwardly on his ailing left wrist after a hard foul by Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 3 and he told reporters he was in his own head a bit when it came to shot selection.
“They’re doing a good job of showing a crowd and being physical and things like that,” Tatum said after the Celtics’ 103-101 loss. “I think I was just thinking a little too much.”
The Celtics’ supporting cast kept them in Game 3, but it’s very clear that the Bucks’ game plan is to send extra bodies Tatum’s way and force him into contested shots or tough decisions. And there always seems to be a big in the painted area just waiting to negate any cuts to the cup.
Tatum has shot only 16 free throws this series after taking 38 in four games against Brooklyn.
I’m doing my best not to overreact to box scores. It’s just a stylistic, X’s and O’s disadvantage for the 24-year-old Celtics star against the Bucks’ schematics. They’re throwing more looks at Tatum, their guards pressure at the point of attack and the trees are constantly clogging the paint. It’s a much tougher test than Brooklyn’s turnstile defense without any protection at the rim.
There’s always the potential for Tatum to score 35 or 40 points, but I’m betting against that in Game 4.
Jayson Tatum Under 28.5 points -115
RECORD: (112-106, +33.8)
The post Celtics Odds: Bet ‘Under’ On Jayson Tatum’s Game 4 Point Prop Vs. Bucks appeared first on NESN.com.