Just why are the Senators such as Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde team when it comes to home versus road games? This seems to show just how dependent head coach Travis Green‘s systems and strategies are on the matchup game. But can it really be that important or are we missing something? Let’s take a dive in and try to figure it out.
The Ottawa Senators Are Poor on the Road
The Sens are shaping up to be a simple team. Thus far, if they are at home, and they score first, they win. After Tuesday night’s loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the Sens fell to 6-6-0 on the season, which has them in fifth in the Atlantic Division standings. Moreover, breaking it down a little situationally, if they score first at home, they are 4-0-0. On the other side of the coin, if they’re on the road, and their opponent scores first, they’re 0-4-0. Furthermore, they have even been able to battle back in the one home game they trailed after the first period. Against the Los Angeles Kings, in the 8-7 game, the Kings were winning 2-0, but 2-1 after the first period.
Digging Into the Stats to Show the Difference
If we break the Senators overall game down by goalscoring, we also see some interesting trends developing. Ottawa outscores their opponent 28-16 at home, while they have been outscored 22-15 away from the confines of the Canadian Tire Centre.
Additionally, their home record has been boosted by outscoring their opponent 9-2 in the first periods of home games. However, the road tells a different story, as the third periods see the Sens outscored 12-6. We will add, that the first period goals on the road are tied 7-7. This is a positive sign that Ottawa has been able to hang around early in games. This would point to the heightened sense of accountability surrounding the club. Last season, they goal differential was -12 in the first period of road games. Of course, Tuesday’s Buffalo Sabre game was a counterexample, but the Sens have been able to eliminate goals early in periods or falling behind early.
One more stat to show the Senators struggles on the road is their team shooting percentage. At home, they are clipping along at a 14.8% team shooting rate. Conversely, on the road that dips to 7.7%. We will add, this does indicate another positive about their road play, and that is their total shots. They are getting slightly more shots per game on the road than at home, and they are outshooting their opponents on the road. In the Sens away games, their total shots are 195-169. So, perhaps their poor play on the road has been a bit unlucky. Once they are able to normalize their shot percentage rates on the road, they should be more successful.
The power play has not been so powerful on the road either. The Sens have been quite impressive on the man advantage at 30.8%, good for fourth in the entire NHL. This is somewhat remarkable really, considering on the road they are currently 2-for-17. Between the power play and shot percentages, the Sens should be tip the scales as the season wears on.
More Likely a Result of the Little Things Like Matchups
Of course, hockey is much more than the end result of a game. There are countless battles and matchups that a coach must manage throughout the game. This matchup game side of the puck is likely where Green and the Sens struggle. For example, not having the last change on the road to get the matchups you want. Even in last night’s game against Buffalo, it may not be obvious in the first wave. Ottawa has the high-end skill to cancel out most teams’ top-line attack. However, when that secondary wave attacks and someone like Tage Thompson or JJ Peterka creates a mismatch, it becomes an opportunity to expose the Sens structure.
Another part of the matchup game, is who is out there for defensive zone faceoffs. For instance, Tim Stutzle has struggled in the faceoff circle so far, with a poor faceoff percentage of 33.3%. Having him caught for defensive zone faceoffs is something that could be avoided at home. This has also been further extenuated by the injuries.
It is not that the injuries have been overly abundant, but it is the significance. Shane Pinto and Artem Zub are two of team’s best defensive players. Pinto is third on the team among forwards with a 16.7% in defensive start zone percentage. Meanwhile, Zub leads the defence at 21.4%. This just causes that extra layer of uncertainty of having Travis Hamonic out there when Green would ideally like other options, this is despite as well as Green and everyone have noticed Hamonic to have played this year. We will add Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen have grown comfortable together. This might be another option for coach Green to play around with in defensive zone coverage as the season moves forward.
The Time is Now for Green and the Sens
For the Senators, the time really is now to figure out their game on the road. Better to figure it out soon before the nine game western road trip around Christmas. The Sens will be forced out on the road as the World Junior Championships are being hosted by Ottawa. This is added to an already busy schedule throughout November with 14 games in 30 days.
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
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