Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Boston Bruins in the Stadium Series. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions the Stadium Series, Bruins and Lightning
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: ABC, ESPN+, The Spot, Sportsnet, TVAS
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting
Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Boston Bruins to Tampa for a Stadium Series showdown. Yes, hockey outdoors in Florida. No, the ice will not melt since it’s predicted to be pretty cold for Florida. Tampa enters the matchup riding a 14-2 recent record, while Boston, 8-2 in their last 10, arrives as one of the Eastern Conference’s most structured, annoying-to-play-against teams. Outdoor games tend to be chaotic, unpredictable, and occasionally weird, which suits both teams just fine. Expect physical play, heavy shots, and at least one moment where a defenceman loses the puck in the snow.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Bolts will try to keep their seven-game home win streak intact and improve on their 6-3-1 record against the Atlantic Division. They continue to look dangerous when their top-end talent is driving the offence. Nikita Kucherov remains among the league’s elite point producers, with 27 goals and 55 assists. Jake Guentzel has five goals and six assists over his past 10 games, while Brayden Point’s speed and finishing ability thrive in transition-heavy games. That’s something outdoor matchups tend to encourage. The Lightning are at their best when they score early and force opponents to chase. Defensively, Tampa has improved but is still prone to the occasional odd-man rush. In their last 10 games, the Bolts have given up 1.6 goals per game. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s performance will be pivotal in a game where rebounds and sightlines can get funky under outdoor lighting.
Tampa Bay’s Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions thinks Tampa needs to embrace the chaos without letting it turn sloppy. Staying disciplined is critical against a Bruins team that happily wins games 3–2 while draining the joy out of your power play. In their last ten games, the Bruins have taken 3.9 penalties and nine penalty minutes while giving up 2.5 goals per game. The Bolts expect defenceman Victor Hedman to play. Hedman hasn’t played since Dec. 9. His elbow underwent a surgical procedure, and he was placed on injured reserve Dec. 11. In 18 games, he has zero goals and 12 assists. The Bolts need to win the neutral-zone battle and generate traffic in front of the net. Contributions from secondary scorers like Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel, which will help offset Boston’s structured defensive game.
Boston Bruins Outlook
Boston arrives doing what Boston always does, it seems. They are playing airtight hockey and daring teams to beat them the hard way. David Pastrňák (22 goals, 47 assists) remains the offensive engine, capable of scoring from angles that shouldn’t be legal, while Morgan Geekie (30 goals) continues to be equal parts pest, playmaker, and emotional agitator. The Bruins’ defensive structure and goaltending give them confidence in low-event games, and outdoor hockey has historically favoured teams that keep things simple. Doing little things like dump, defend, frustrate, and repeat, tends to work.
Boston’s Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions thinks for Boston, this game is about structure and patience. If the Bruins clog shooting lanes, win board battles, and limit Tampa’s speed through the middle of the ice, they can grind this into their preferred type of game. Special teams will matter, particularly staying out of penalty trouble against Tampa’s lethal power play. Their power play percentage sits at 26.8%, fourth in the league. If Boston scores first, they’re very comfortable turning this into a long, cold night for the Lightning, even in Florida.
Prediction
This matchup has all the ingredients of a tight, playoff-style game with a Stadium Series twist. Tampa’s offensive firepower and home-state comfort give them an edge, but Boston’s structure keeps this close until the final minutes.
Prediction: Lightning 4, Bruins 3
Prop Bets
As always, check lineups and odds before locking anything in.
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Lightning Team Total – Over 2.5 goals: Tampa’s top six generates chances in bunches, even against elite defensive teams.
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Anytime Goal Scorer Over 1 goal: Nikita Kucherov: Big stage, outdoor spotlight, puck on his stick. That usually ends well.
Final Thoughts
NHL Predictions thinks the Stadium Series thrives on spectacle, and this one delivers: Original Six grit versus modern offensive firepower, all under the Florida sky. Expect physical play, momentum swings, and at least one replay angle that looks like it belongs in a documentary. If nothing else, it’s proof that hockey can work anywhere. Yes, even next to a pirate ship.
Main Photo: Winslow Townson-Imagn Images
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