Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Boston Bruins. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions with Lightning at Bruins
2024-25 Regular Season Series tied 2 – 2
Time: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to watch TV: The Spot, NHLN, TVAS, NESN
Location: TD Garden from Boston, Massachusetts
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Bolts are trying to shake off a rough start. Their offence still gleams with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and company, who can light up any scoreboard, but their 0-2 start makes it look like they can’t pay their electric bill so far. It’s not the Offence. Seven goals in the first two games is pretty. Giving up ten goals is pretty, too. Pretty ugly. Brayden Point has four, well, “points” so far. He also has six penalty minutes. Defence and goaltending need to step up. Defenceman Emil Martinsen Lilleberg can’t be taking undisciplined penalties. They need to stop surrendering odd-man rushes and soft goals. Tampa can’t afford sloppy pivot passes or turnovers in their own zone.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will be a litmus test. If he’s sharp, he can steal this game. If he’s not, a poorly executed steal leads to jail time. Jail cells that have benches where ineffective starters sit on. Expect Boston to pepper him with everything short of pucks disguised as flamingos (though one never knows in Florida hockey).
NHL Predictions Key to Victory:
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Survive Boston’s top line. Pastrňak, (four points), Zacha (three points), and Lindholm (four points) will be cooking. Don’t let them eat.
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Fast, sharp transitions. If Tampa can turn defence into offence before Boston settles, that’s where they’ll strike.
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Disciplined at home. No bonus power plays to Boston. That’d be foolish.
Boston Bruins Outlook
Boston’s looking confident. They’ve started the season strong at 3-0. Their system is clicking and they lean on structure, two‑way play, and opportunistic offence. Under Marco Sturm, they’re trying to be unloveable, tough, efficient, but effective.
Jeremy Swayman (two wins) (or Korpisalo (one win), depending on the pitcher’s duel) have been solid. If Boston’s netminders can frustrate Tampa’s shooters early, the mental/physical fatigue could set in quick coming off Tampa’s 0-2 start.
Key to Victory:
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Grind the neutral zone. Make every breakout a negotiation.
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Traffic in front. Don’t let Vasy roam free, especially on power plays. Boston’s two PPs on the season need to increase against the Bolts.
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Capitalize on mistakes. Tampa has a penalty kill of 87.5%, which is 11th in the league. So, when they make them. the Bruins must pounce.
NHL Predictions: Who Edges It?
This feels like the kind of game that’s tight for two periods and explodes late. Boston has home ice, structure, and momentum. Tampa has firepower and desperation. Our gut says Boston ekes this one out, but we wouldn’t be shocked if the Lightning come back late.
Bruins 3, Lightning 2 (OT)
Expect a bruising, tense, low‑scoring night. Maybe a scrappy third period. Maybe even an empty net heart‑attack. But lean Boston.
Prop Bets of the Night
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David Pastrňak Over 0.5 Points — Always dangerous, especially vs. Tampa’s defensive gaps.
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Andrei Vasilevskiy Over 28.5 Saves — Boston will fire pucks.
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Total Goals Over 5.5 — Expect a burst late.
Final Thoughts
The Bruins are built for this kind of game: tough, structured, willing to grind. Tampa can’t just rely on flash; they need grit, execution, and a good night from Vasy. If those align, Lightning might pick up their first win. If not Jon Cooper may be picking up his bags earlier than expected.
Either way, expect intensity, maybe a fight (or seven), and at least one goal you’ll trash-talk with your buddies tomorrow. Let’s see if Tampa puts in the spark they’re promising, or if Boston’s system snuffs them out.
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Main Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty – USA TODAY Sports
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