Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey take a look at the games and give analysis. Our team break down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, the New York Islanders will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: MSGSN, SN-PIT
This matchup features two heated Metropolitan Division rivals that have gotten off to rough starts. The Islanders sit seventh in the division with a record of 4-6-2 through 12 games. The Penguins aren’t much better sitting in sixth for the division with a record of 5-7-1 through 13 games. These two do not like each other and always play in close physical contests. They will meet three times this season with this first matchup on Long Island at UBS Arena. The Islanders are 7-3 against the Penguins in their last 10 meetings. The series was split 2-2 last season.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, it was a 5-2 loss against the New York Rangers their last time out. It was a gutsy effort but it is hard to overcome all the injuries, especially against a great team like the Rangers. The injury woes almost got worse as Kyle Palmieri the team’s leading scorer left the game after a follow-through to the face. They dodged the bullet and he was able to return after a handful of stitches. The team’s two goals in this game were right on par for their average per game. That ranks 31st in the league at 2.25. The special teams continue to sink this team. Their powerplay ranks 29th in percentage at 12.5%. That unit even gave up a shorthanded goal in this game. With how small the margin for error is with this team, that cannot happen.
The Islander defensive lineup made history on Sunday. Alexander Romanov, Mike Reilly, and Adam Pelech were all out due to injury. Grant Hutton, Samuel Bolduc, and Dennis Cholowski entered. This was the first time in 31 years that the Islanders changed three defenceman between games. These three have a combined 192 NHL games of experience, with Cholowski having the most at 121. It showed in this game as Bolduc had a bad turnover which led directly to a Ranger goal. He didn’t see much ice after that and played a team-low 5:56. A usually solid unit for the Islanders will suffer due to these injuries. The five goals against dropped them 12th in goals against with 3.08 per game. If not for Ilya Sorokin it would’ve been a lot worse. With all the injuries he has been the best player for the Islanders. He holds a 3-2-1 record with a .922 save percentage and 2.29 goals against.
The Penguins Story
The aging Penguins continue to lean heavily on their two studs. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have been doing this for the better part of 20 years. These legends continue to lead the team offensively, both with 14 points in 13 games. While Malkin recently just eclipsed 500 goals, Crosby sits three away from 600 with 597. This makes them pretty top-heavy as the rest of the team leaves a lot to be desired. They rank 19th in goals with 2.92 per game. With their two stars, the powerplay is always dangerous, they rank 12th in percentage at 22.2%.
The weakness of the Penguins team is on defence and in the net. They allow a lot of grade-A chances and leave their goalie out to dry at times. They rank 29th in goals against with 3.77 per game. The defence allows the third most high-danger shots against with 38. That has their expected goals against ranking first in the league at 34.2. Goaltending-wise, Tristan Jarry is still absent from the team on an AHL stint. The tandem of Alex Nedeljkovic and Joel Blomqvist has filled in. Nedeljkovic is 2-2-1 with a .903 save percentage and 2.75 goals against. Blomqvist is 2-4 with a .909 save percentage and 2.75 goals against. These numbers are decent considering the Penguins give up the third most shots with 33.77 per game.
Prediction
Here’s the score for our NHL predictions. The Penguins can be dangerous offensively with their two studs. This will be a challenge for the inexperienced Islanders’ defence. However, if you can’t keep the puck out of your net it is hard to win in this league. The Penguins are one of the worst defensive teams. What is good for them is they’re up against one of the worst offensives in the league. Despite this, we think the home-ice advantage, defensive and goaltending advantage will be able to lead the Islanders to a win on the Island.
Prediction: Islanders win 3-2
Prop Bets
Heres the fun part for the NHL Predictions. FanDuel has the Islanders’ money line at -132, we think they will win so take this. The over/under is set at 6.5. The Penguins have the top-end talent to score but the Islanders do not. Even with the Penguins’ bad defence, we think seven goals is way too high for this game, take the under at -140. As far as any-time goal scorers, for the Islanders, take Brock Nelson who has scored in both his last games against Pittsburgh. For the Penguins, take Sidney Crosby, closing in on the 600-goal milestone and he typically owns the Islanders.
Main Photo: Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images
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