Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: ESPN+, HULU
This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents trending in different directions. The Islanders in seventh in the Metropolitan Division with a 14-17-7 record. Through 38 games this season they have accumulated 35 points. The Maple Leafs are first in the Atlantic Division with a 23-13-2 record. That is good for 48 points in 38 games played. This is the third and final matchup between these teams. They have split the first two meetings. The Maple Leafs won the most recent game on New Years Eve 3-1. This final game will take place on Long Island inside UBS Arena.
The Islanders Story
It has been a frustrating season for the Islanders so far. As of late they have lost five of their last seven games. Even with the returns of Anthony Duclair and Mathew Barzal, their offence has lacked consistency. Over these last seven games they have scored two goals or less in four of them. This is why they rank 26th in the league in goals averaging 2.63 per game. Maybe some line changes are on the way as Barzal and Duclair haven’t played together at 5v5 since they’ve returned. However, they do play together on the powerplay, which has continued to plaque this team. That unit still ranking last in the league at 11.5%.
The defence and goaltending used to be a strong suit for this team. Recently it has been anything but. Over the last seven games, they have allowed three or more goals in every game. Ilya Sorokin has had a rough stretch of games but he’s not exactly getting a lot of help in front of him. The team has allowed the 11th most shots on goals with 863. While also allowing the 11th most high-danger shots with 80. Couple that with the leagues worst penalty kill at 63.9% and bad things happen. Overall Sorokin is 11-12-4 with a .898 save percentage and 2.92 goals against. This is the first time in his career his save percentage has dropped below .909.
The Maple Leafs Story
For the Maple Leafs they will be missing captain Auston Matthews for a sixth straight game. They have gone 2-3 without him so far. It helps having a ton of other talent to step up with him out. Team point leader Mitch Marner is one, he has 51 points in 38 games. He has points in nine straight games. John Tavares is another, he is the top line center without Matthews. He is on a eight game 13 point streak. William Nylander is a top five goal scorer in the league with 23 to his name. As a team they rank 14th in goals averaging 3.11 per game.
The Maple Leafs are a strong defensive team as well. In the league they rank eighth in goals against averaging 2.79 per game. They have allowed 106 goals against the 12th least. A good penalty kill and solid goaltending play has a lot to do with this. On the kill Toronto ranks 11th at a strong 81.5%. Their goalies deserve a good share of the credit too. Joseph Woll is already having a strong season. He was then thrust into the starting role with the injury to starter Anthony Stolarz. Woll played great in the most recent win over the Islanders so they could roll with him again. He is 11-6 with a .913 save percentage and 2.48 goals against. If not Woll, Dennis Hildeby was just recalled from AHL Toronto on Monday.
NHL Predictions Time
In a matchup that seems to favour Toronto in every way, it will be tough for the Islanders to win. However they beat this same Maple Leaf team just a short two weeks ago. With the Islanders falling in the standings, they will be desperate for these points. While also looking to rally their fans and be better at home. No Auston Matthews plays into the Islanders favor. We think they will be able to pull off the upset on the Island.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-3
Prop Bets
According to Fanduel, the Islanders are the rightful underdogs. We like those plus odds so take their money line at +100. The over/under is set at 5.5. The Islander offence has generated over 30 shots on goal in their last three games, they are due to score some goals. Couple that with a strong Maple Leafs offence and a leaky Islanders defence and we like the over at -134. As far as any time goal scorers, for the Islanders take Brock Nelson at +270. He went the entire month of December without a goal, maybe the new year will inspire him to snap out of it. For the Maple Leafs take John Tavares at +170. Playing in a first line role now and he loves to play against his former team, we think he’ll light the lamp in this one.
Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions, some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Main Photo: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
The post NHL Predictions: January 2 New York Islanders Vs Toronto Maple Leafs appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.