Welcome to the latest edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our team here at Last Word on Hockey breaks down head-to-head matchups and other key elements that may influence the outcome of each game. This edition of NHL Predictions breaks down the Thursday, January 2, 2025 matchup between the Dallas Stars and the Ottawa Senators.
NHL Predictions
Dallas Stars vs. Ottawa Senators
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: Victory+; ESPN+; Sportsnet; TSN
The Dallas Stars begin 2025 with a home game against the Ottawa Senators. The teams have yet to meet this season but will face each other twice in a 10-day span. Dallas makes the trip to Ottawa on January 12.
Standings-wise, both teams find themselves in the thick of the wild card race in their respective conferences. Ottawa currently holds the final playoff spot in the East with 40 points — one more than the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Stars have the first wild card spot in the West with 45 points, two points ahead of the Calgary Flames.
Dallas is 4-1-0 in its last five games against Ottawa and leads the all-time series 25-16-5. That mark includes a 15-8-1 record on home ice. The teams split their two meetings last season, with each team successfully protecting home ice. Ottawa’s last victory in Dallas was in October 2021.
Dallas has been a great home team this season. Can the Stars defend home ice again or will the Senators pick up a rare win in the Lone Star State?
Dallas Stars Story
Dallas’ offensive struggles have been well documented, especially with the perceived talent and depth still on its roster. The Stars may be turning a corner with nine goals in their last two games, but they must show up more consistently.
Forward Matt Duchene has helped carry the Dallas offence all year and scored a goal as part of a three-point night against the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday. The first line has also started to contribute as expected before the season. Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston all scored goals in Tuesday’s win over the Buffalo Sabres. Johnston has scored in three consecutive games and picked up a point in four in a row. Robertson has scored in two straight.
The Stars’ second line took a hit when Tyler Seguin underwent surgery in December, ending his regular season. Adding to the misfortune, Mason Marchment, third on the team with 27 points this season, will miss a third consecutive game after taking a puck off the face against the Minnesota Wild.
Meanwhile, the defence has been hit-and-miss while also dealing with injuries. Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell have been steady contributors, and Thomas Harley has displayed growth. Matt Dumba also returned from injured reserve recently but has underachieved this season. Luckily, goaltender Jake Oettinger is in the top five in the NHL in wins and allows the seventh-fewest goals.
Ottawa Senators Story
Ottawa came up with nine wins in 13 games in December, posting a 9-3-1 record. The Senators earned a 3-1 victory over the Minnesota Wild in their most recent game on December 29, helping the Stars gain ground in the Central Division. Forwards Claude Giroux, Ridly Greig, and Josh Norris tallied goals, while goaltender Leevi Merilainen stopped 30 of 31 shots to earn his second win in three starts this season.
Merilainen is 2-2-0 in his career with four starts and five total appearances. He has started Ottawa’s last three games after being recalled from the American Hockey League following injuries to Linus Ullmark and Anton Forsberg. All three of his starts in 2024 came against Western Conference teams. The injured goalies were combining to allow 2.67 goals-against this season. Merilainen has fared just as well in limited time, allowing 2.68.
Giroux is fourth on the teams with 24 points and has scored nine goals, two of which have come during the last four games. Norris has 14 goals, the second most behind Brady Tkachuk. Former third-overall pick Tim Stutzle leads the team with 40 points this season.
NHL Prediction
Both teams average just over three goals per game this season, but the goaltending on each side could make this a somewhat low-scoring game. Players will need to scrap and claw to put the puck in the net. Dallas is second in the NHL in goals against per game, while Ottawa is tied for the most shutouts.
The Stars do get a bit of a benefit going up against a relatively inexperienced goalie, but they have yet to display consistency on the offensive end for three or more consecutive games this season. If things follow suit in that regard, Ottawa could snap its road losing streak against the Stars.
NHL Prediction: Senators win 3-2
Prop Bets of the Night
I always think it’s a bit too risky to assume a player will come up with multiple points in a game, but if you’re going to do it, this might be the game. Heiskanen (+350) has eight points in 10 career games against Ottawa, and three of those games have seen him collect multiple points. Stutzle (+265) to do the same is also appealing. He has not scored a goal in his career against Dallas but has two multi-point games against the Stars. Norris (+250) scoring at any time is also interesting. He has five goals in four games against Dallas in his career.
Main photo by: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
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