Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Don’t forget to check out all the action on NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Tv: FDSNSUN, MSGSN, ESPN+
This matchup features two Eastern Conferences opponents holding similar positions in the standings. The Islanders are fifth in the Metropolitan Division through 50 games. Their record is 23-20-7 good for 53 points. The Lightning sit fourth in the Atlantic Division with a record of 27-20-3. Through 50 games, they have 57 points. This will be the first of three matchups between these teams this season. Last season the Lightning took the series 2-1. Tonight’s matchup will take place at Amalie Arena.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they continued to be white hot in winning their sixth game in a row. The latest coming in a dominant 3-0 shutout against the Philadelphia Flyers. This streak has helped them crawl out of the basement of the Metro and into playoff contention. They currently sit four points out of the wild card. They rank near the bottom in 26th for goals with 2.72 per game.
Despite this, the offence has come alive during this win streak scoring three or more goals in every game. Bo Horvat and Anders Lee have been leading the way in point production. Horvat just had his six-game point streak ended in the last one. However, Simon Holmstrom has stepped up to provide depth production recently. He has four goals and an assist over his last six games since returning from injury.
Defensively the Islanders have continued to play sound hockey. Limiting the Flyers to no goals on just 23 shots on net. The recent play has moved them up to 12th in goals against with 2.84 per game. They have held opponents to two goals or fewer in every game during the win streak. The major turnaround for the penalty kill plays a big factor in that. New York has been great in the month of January going 21-for-23 even killing off a four-minute penalty in their last game.
Lights-out goaltending play also helps tremendously. Ilya Sorkin has been unreal returning to Vezina form over the last stretch of games. Over the last five he is 5-0 with a .964 save percentage and 0.99 goals against to go along with two shutouts since the new year. With injuries to both backup goalies, look for them to keep rolling with their rock in net.
The Lightning Story
The Lightning come into this game off a dominating 3-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings. This win snapped a short two game losing streak. Tampa boasts one of the league’s best offences ranking third in goals for with 3.48 per game. To go along with that is one of the league’s top power play units ranking fifth at 26.9%. Nikita Kucherov leads the way for them with 75 points in 48 games played.
Tied for second in the league in points and his 1.56 points-per-game is the best rate in the NHL. Brandon Hagel is second in points with 54 points in 50 games. He snapped an eight-game goal drought in their last game. Free agent acquisition Jake Guentzel has played a big part in their success in his top line role. He’s racked up 50 points in 49 games this season.
Defensively, the Lightning have solid numbers as well. They rank 11th in goals against with 2.78 goals per game. A 10th-ranked penalty kill at 81.5% helps those numbers. Tampa also does a decent job at limiting shots, ranking in the middle of the pack at 18th in shots on goal with 1144 this season. They do better at preventing the grade-a chances, ranking 10th in high danger shots against with 90.
However perhaps the biggest reason for their defensive success is the man between the pipes. Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the league’s best and most active goalies. He got the shutout in their last game moving his record to 21-15-2. He remains in the top 10 in save percentage at .918 and in goals against with 2.28.
Prediction
On paper the Lightning are the better of the two teams. They hold advantages on offence, defence, special teams, in the net and not to mention playing on home ice. However, the Islanders come into this game playing their best hockey of the season. They have been playing strong defence and have a goalie playing at the top of his game. That will all be put to the test against one of the best offences in the league.
This is an important game for both teams but with the Islanders chasing Tampa in the standings they should be the more desperate of the two. These teams have a lot of history as well and New York will be looking to get revenge for past playoff eliminations. We think these factors will be enough for them to pull off the upset in Tampa.
Prediction: Islanders win 3-2
Prop Bets
We close out NHL predictions with some prop bets. Top betting sites rightfully have the Islanders as underdogs. We like the juice on their money line at +146. The over/under is set at 5.5. The Islanders haven’t allowed more than two goals in their last six games and this matchup will feature two of the league’s best goalies. These factors make us like the under at +104.
As far as any time goal scorers, for the Islanders take Bo Horvat at +210. He has been on fire since getting back on the top line and we think he will continue that here. For the Lightning take Jake Guentzel at +180. Dating back to his Pittsburgh Penguins days he loves to score against the Islanders so take him to pot one in this game.
Main photo by: Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions: February 1 New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.