The Toronto Maple Leafs came into the 2024-25 season with undeniable talent at the goaltender position. Despite the high level of optimism, the goalies for the Leafs did have one major question mark remaining. Just who was going to get all the starts for the full 82-game schedule? Today we shall analyze the expectations as the Leafs entered the season. Then, we will compare with, after a 6-5-2 start, if the netminders are doing their part. We are still pretty early in terms of having sufficient information for a sample size, but the season thus far would be able to form a trend. Whether or not the trend continues on through November would be how we would be begin to establish a baseline for the expected.
Current Leafs Situations Among the Goalies
The Leafs entered 2024-25 with four goalies in mind. Dennis Hildeby, Matt Murray, Anthony Stolarz, and Joseph Woll are all under contract. They do have a highly-regarded goaltender prospect in Artur Akhtyamov, but he was not really expected in the NHL this season, so we won’t concentrate on him for this analysis. Given the two games he’s played thus far, it is clear that Hildeby is positioned as the third-stringer. The two NHL jobs are for Stolarz and Woll, while Murray has been assigned to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies.
| Name | Status | Career NHL Games Played | 23-24 NHL Personal & Team Record |
| Anthony Stolarz | NHL | 115 | 16-7-2 & 52-24-6 |
| Dennis Hildeby | AHL | 2 | – |
| Joseph Woll | NHL | 38 | 12-11-1 & 46-26-10 |
| Matt Murray | AHL | 272 | – |
Looking Back at Their 2023-24 Numbers
If we study the recent NHL careers of the goalies, it makes sense to include them so highly. Coming into 2024-25, we had the Leafs goalies ranked as the third best among the Atlantic Division competition. However, looking back at 2023-24 and how it can drive expectations for this season, the major unknown was the lack of NHL action. Below are Stolarz and Woll’s statistics from last year. Stolarz’s numbers were outstanding, however, it was in limited action as he was backup to Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida. Woll’s numbers weren’t quite so impressive, but fine nonetheless. Moreover, again, we see few games, as both goalies were around the 25-game mark.
| 23-24 Stats | Anthony Stolarz | Joseph Woll |
| Record | 16-7-2 | 12-11-1 |
| SV% | .925 | .907 |
| GAA | 2.03 | 2.94 |
| GSAx | 20.1 | 7.2 |
| SO | 2 | 0 |
Ottawa Senators Goaltending versus the Atlantic Division Rivals
How’s the Team Done Thus Far
Therefore, the two goalies came into 2024-25 with remarkable combined numbers. In contrast, goalies are creatures are habit. The one habit that has not been nurtured for either of the goaltenders has been as a starter at the NHL level. So, the question to analyze is when and if, these goaltenders’ stats will take a dip once they get tired.
To explain how the team has been doing defensively in 2024-25, with Stolarz and Woll as a combined forced, the team’s current 5v5 goals against above expected is good at -2.26. That puts them 11th in that ranking. That standing should be good enough to consider the goaltending not being at fault for any lack of overall performance by the team.
Stolarz Is on Form for the Leafs Goalies
In terms of more specific trend from the goalies performances, we can study Stolarz’s numbers. Neither Hildeby or Woll have played enough to be considered yet. Therefore, with the early numbers the way they are for Stolarz, Leaf fans have reason for optimism. Keep in mind, his numbers were outstanding last year, in 27 games, his GSAx of 20.1 is incredible. That’s approaching a full goal per game prevented by Stolarz compared to his competitors. Simply astonishing. This year, he has better high danger and low danger shot attempt save percentages than last season. Case in point, if we want to look at early season trends in net, Stolarz is tipping the scales for the Leafs favour.
| 23-24 | 24-25 | |
| GP | 27 | 8 |
| GSAx | 20.1 | 4.0 |
| HDSv% | .773 | .786 |
| LDSv% | .975 | .980 |
With all this is mind, just how will it play out for the Leafs? In three starts in 2024-25, Woll has struggled out of the gate. Conversely, it was somewhat expected with him recovering from injury and needing reps in real games after training camp to get himself prepared for the campaign. Woll did play well last night versus the Minnesota Wild, stopping 31 of 33 shots in the overtime loss. So, he seems to be rounding into form. This is crucial, as it allows Stolarz rest when it is required. That way, if his trending start to 2024-25 doesn’t continue for whatever reason, head coach Craig Berube knows Woll is there for regular reps. To answer our original hypothesis, Stolarz is playing at, or slightly above expectations. And thanks to him carrying the bulk of the load, the team is too, at least from the goalies perspective.
Main Photo Cedit: John E. Sokolowski – USA TODAY Sports
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