The Calder Memorial Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL’s most outstanding rookie, has traditionally favoured forwards and defencemen, with goaltenders seldom capturing the honour. The last netminder to do so was Steve Mason in the 2008-09 season. However, for the 2024-25 season, Calgary Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf has emerged as a formidable contender, challenging the likes of Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, and current frontrunner, Lane Hutson.
Calder Trophy Dustin Wolf Candidate and Calgary’s Backbone
Dustin Wolf’s transition from the AHL to the NHL has been nothing short of remarkable. As of March 14, 2025, Wolf has appeared in 36 games, boasting a 20-12-4 record with a .913 SV%. His performance has been pivotal in keeping the Flames competitive in the Western Conference playoff race. Notably, Wolf secured his third career shutout on March 8, leading Calgary to a 1-0 victory over the Montreal Canadiens, out dueling fellow Calder candidate Lane Hutson. This achievement made him the first rookie in franchise history to record three shutouts in a single season.
Wolf’s advanced metrics further underscore his value. At 5-on-5 play, he has registered a .935 SV% and an .871 high-danger save percentage. Across all situations, his high-danger save percentage stands at .845, and he has saved 12.03 goals above expected. These statistics not only highlight his shot-stopping prowess but also his ability to make crucial saves in high-pressure scenarios. Wolf is doing all this while getting almost no offensive support. The Flames currently sit last in the NHL in goals-for per game. Without Wolf it’s practically a guarantee that the Flames would be well outside the playoffs, instead, they sit in the final Wild Card spot in the West.
Lane Hutson is a very Dynamic Defenceman and Wolf’s Top Calder Competition
Montreal Canadiens defenceman Lane Hutson has been a revelation this season. Leading all rookies with 46 points in 60 games, Hutson’s offensive contributions from the blueline have been instrumental for Montreal. His offensive net rating of plus-8.5 is outstanding, reflecting his ability to drive play and generate scoring opportunities. He has game-breaking ability and is one of the most fun players to watch this season. However, his defensive net rating of minus-6.4 indicates areas needing improvement, a common trait among young, offensive defensemen.
It’s no secret that fans and writers favour offence over defence when it comes to awards. The James Norris Memorial Trophy has essentially become the award to the best offensive defenceman, instead of necessarily the best defencemen. With this in mind, it’s no surprise Hutson and his incredible season have him as the odds-on favourite to win the Calder.
The Offensive Prodigy Macklin Celebrini
Selected first overall in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, Macklin Celebrini has met high expectations with his performance for the San Jose Sharks. Despite missing games early in the season due to injury, Celebrini has amassed 44 points in 49 games. In other words, equating to a 74-point pace over an 82-game season. His ability to handle tough competition and maintain a high level of play has solidified his position as a top-Calder contender.
The biggest issue holding back Celebrini’s Calder chances is that he plays on a team that is nowhere near the playoffs. If both Montreal and Calgary miss the playoffs, his odds will improve. He could steal the award if he’s able to surpass Hutson in rookie scoring before the end of the season.
Matvei Michkov is Another Russian Sensation
Philadelphia Flyers’ winger Matvei Michkov has showcased his scoring touch with 19 goals and 44 points in 59 games. His offensive net rating of plus-4.9 highlights his impact, and his expected goals share (xG%) of 54.69% underscores his effectiveness during five-on-five play. Michkov’s ability to adapt to the NHL’s pace and his consistent offensive production make him a strong Calder candidate.
Michkov is the longest shot to win this award. He is having an incredible season, but unless he surpasses Hutson and Celebrini in scoring, he will finish a great rookie season without any hardware.
Comparing to Steve Mason’s Calder-Winning Season
Steve Mason’s 2008-09 season with the Columbus Blue Jackets serves as a benchmark for rookie goaltenders. Mason recorded a 33-20-7 record with a .916 SV% and 10 shutouts, leading the Blue Jackets to their first playoff appearance. Wolf’s current statistics, including his .913 SV% and three shutouts, are comparable, especially considering the evolution of the game and offensive trends in recent years.
Assessing Wolf’s Calder Chances
Historically, goaltenders face challenges in securing the Calder Trophy due to the position’s unique demands and the longer development curve often associated with netminders. However, Wolf’s performance has been integral to Calgary’s success this season. His ability to deliver crucial saves and maintain composure under pressure has not only earned him individual accolades but also positioned him as the Flames’ most valuable player.
In comparison to his fellow rookies, Wolf’s impact is profound. While forwards and defencemen like Celebrini, Michkov, and Hutson contribute significantly to their teams’ offences, a goaltender’s influence on the game’s outcome is unparalleled. Wolf’s consistent performances have provided Calgary with stability and confidence, essential components for any team’s success.
The Race to the End
The 2024-25 Calder Trophy race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. While Lane Hutson currently leads in rookie scoring and is favoured by many analysts, Dustin Wolf’s exceptional goaltending cannot be overlooked. His statistics align closely with those of Steve Mason’s Calder-winning season, and his role as Calgary’s backbone adds weight to his candidacy. If Wolf can help lead the Calgary Flames to the playoffs while his team continues to provide almost no run support, he deserves to be named the NHL’s best rookie.
Main Photo Credit: Sergei Belski – Imagn Images
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